Each week in the NBA is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy basketball managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised.
Don’t be surprised if … Philadelphia 76ers PG/SG Tyrese Maxey scores the most fantasy points this season
Perhaps this does not feel too bold since Maxey exits the All-Star break with this exact honor, having scored 2,804 fantasy points (an average of 53.9 per game). Last season, there were two obvious real-life and fantasy MVP choices, and Oklahoma City Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic were the lone players to surpass 4,000 points. Jokic was ridiculous, averaging 69.7 fPPG; Gilgeous-Alexander, who won league MVP honors, averaged 58.7 fPPG. Maxey, who played in only 52 games, averaged 45.5 fPPG.
This season, Maxey has really blossomed into a star, though it is relevant to point out that durability is the driving factor in him leading the league in fantasy points. Maxey, playing the most minutes per game (38.6 MPG), has missed only two contests. Gilgeous-Alexander (abdomen) missed the five games leading to the break, and he might miss more. Jokic (knee) missed 16 games, returning two weeks ago. SGA and Jokic are better fantasy options per game (as is Los Angeles Lakers PG Luka Doncic), but Maxey plays. We must appreciate this.
Does this mean fantasy managers in points formats should trade Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic or Doncic straight up for Maxey? Well, anyone can get hurt, including Maxey. No qualified player has averaged more than 38 MPG since James Harden for the 2015-16 Houston Rockets. The 76ers claim they want to limit Maxey’s minutes, and they have done so already a bit in February. Still, Maxey perseveres, even as Joel Embiid thrives. The Thunder and Nuggets seem safer for playoff position, so perhaps they do not push their MVP candidates. The 76ers do not have this luxury.
I don’t think I could reasonably trade Gilgeous-Alexander or Jokic for Maxey, even though it seems reasonable that Maxey will lead the league in fantasy points. For Doncic, however, it makes more sense.
Tatum and the Celtics are playing it so cool with his return from an Achilles tear, not committing to anything as it pertains to playing regular-season games. Yeah, don’t believe them. Tatum is already practicing and has participated in 5-on-5 scrimmages. The contending Celtics want Tatum on the court as soon as possible. Perhaps they manage his minutes and avoid back-to-back situations, but he is going to play well before the playoffs begin — and he is going to greatly aid fantasy managers. We shouldn’t expect 48.4 fantasy points per game like last season, but more than 40 fPPG in 30-or-so minutes seems reasonable.
The Celtics host the rival 76ers on Sunday night, March 1 in a nationally televised affair on NBC. That seems like a solid spot to showcase one of the top 10 players in the league making a triumphant return from a major injury. It feels so early, since he played in last season’s playoffs, but I guess it’s true that every athlete heals from injury at their own pace. Just because Tyrese Haliburton and Damian Lillard are not expected back this season should not affect how anyone views Tatum.
Regardless, it seems unfathomable that Tatum just barely eclipsed being rostered in 50% of ESPN standard leagues this week while Memphis Grizzlies PG Ty Jerome, LA Clippers SF/SG Bennedict Mathurin and Miami Heat SF/SG Jaime Jaquez Jr. are being added in myriad leagues and are more rostered. No, we should not expect Tatum to score 50 fantasy points on March 1 … but we shouldn’t bet against it, either.
Elsewhere around the NBA
2:23
Are Celtics No. 1 in the East if Jayson Tatum returns this season?
Alan Hahn says it’s unfair to put high expectations on Jayson Tatum should he return for the Celtics this season.
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Trying to guess which star players are not going to be suiting up for the final weeks/months is kind of a bummer. At least we have clarity with Washington Wizards PG Trae Young and C/PF Anthony Davis. Nobody beats the Wiz when it comes to clarity (in this case). Will Indiana Pacers C Ivica Zubac (ankle) play for his new team before October? Perhaps that seems extreme. He wasn’t hurt when the Clippers traded him. Now he apparently is, and yeah, it is frustrating. We need the rebounds. Utah Jazz C Jusuf Nurkic isn’t hurt, but he’s barely playing. Where have all the rebounders (other than Cardwell, lol) gone?
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The Milwaukee Bucks must let PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) play or risk the wrath of fans and the league office. The Greek Freak has already said he is healthy and ready to perform. It’s one thing to sit Zubac. Giannis is a top-5 star. It is good for fantasy managers that he is forcing the team to play him, and it’s sad that this is the new normal. Don’t expect Giannis to play every game, but 45 or so fantasy points per game sure would suffice.
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I am a bit surprised that new Bucks signing SG/SF Cam Thomas is not on the most-added list after he scored 34 points against the Magic in a recent game. Fantasy managers usually fall for that kind of thing. Then again, because Thomas does almost nothing else statistically, that was worth only 44 ESPN fantasy points. Embiid has at least 44 fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games.
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Dallas Mavericks PG/SG Kyrie Irving (knee) began Wednesday rostered in 58.8% of ESPN leagues, or quite a bit more than Tatum. The only way Irving was going to play this season was if the Mavericks (like the Celtics) were contending, but we knew months ago that was not happening. Let Irving go. He is not playing this season.
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Two teams boast a pair of “qualified” players among the top 15 in assists per game. The Nuggets are the obvious one, with Jokic and Jamal Murray. The other is not the Lakers with Doncic and LeBron James, as the latter is not qualified. However, two Jazz qualify. Nobody knows if/when Keyonte George (ankle) is playing again, but backup Isaiah Collier is piling up the assists in his absence. In fact, Collier averages 9.5 APG in his 12 starts. That’s about what Cade Cunningham averages. Collier isn’t much of a scorer and he remains an atrocious 3-point shooter, but the assists and steals are legit.
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It would be surprising if LeBron decides to retire from the NBA after this season. Not to judge, but he would seem like a prime candidate for an elongated, attention-getting, King-like, full-season celebration with other franchises concocting ceremonies and offering fancy gifts and everything else. He wants it all, and, well, he deserves what he wants. James, 41, is still averaging 42.4 fPPG, 21st in the league. This isn’t Kyle Lowry at the end of a bench, you know. James is playing the 2026-27 season, at the least. That is good news for fantasy managers. Go get him in a dynasty league if you can win it next season. Flags fly forever.
