Blue Jays vs Rays betting preview: Why Tampa Bay at -130 is the play despite Kevin Gausman on the mound

It hasn’t been a great stretch of baseball for me over the past few days. Sometimes the looks are correct, but the outcomes are wrong. Sure, it is easy to say the look is wrong if you have a losing ticket, and there is a lot of truth.

Yesterday, the Philadelphia Phillies won the first five innings 1-0. I expected Aaron Nola to be worse, but he pitched well, so my play on the Miami Marlins was a loss, but it wasn’t a terrible look. Today, I hope we can get back on track with the Toronto Blue Jays taking on the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Blue Jays were inches, minutes, outs, whatever descriptor you wanted to use, away from winning the World Series last year. This season, they look like they will struggle to even make the playoffs.

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They are currently three games under .500, which is a rough look considering they are in one of the toughest divisions in baseball. Is it a World Series hangover, or is it something worse for the team? The pitching staff looks a bit rough, throwing to a 4.27 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP.

One of their better starters is taking the hill tonight as the Rays turn to Kevin Gausman. For the year, Gausman is 2-2 with a 3.10 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. He has made three road starts this season, with just one of them being a quality outing. He has allowed nine earned runs over 16.2 innings. The Rays have been very strong against the Blue Jays right-hander in the past. In 74 at-bats against Gausman, they are hitting .351. They only have four extra-base hits against him, though.

Tampa Bay is one of those teams that finds ways to win no matter who is on their roster. I have to say that I’m a bit shocked at how great the team is looking through the beginning portion of the year. They are 22-12 with one of the best records in baseball. At home, they are 12-4, looking like one of the most dominant teams in the sport. As a team, they are hitting .253, and the pitching staff is throwing to a 3.67 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.

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Drew Rasmussen of the Tampa Bay Rays throws a pitch during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla., on Aug. 14, 2022. (Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)

Looking to position them for yet another win is Drew Rasmussen. For the season, the righty is 2-1 with a 2.64 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP. He has made two home starts this year and has gone six innings in both of them. He has allowed a total of six hits, one walk and one earned run over those 12 innings. Blue Jays hitters haven’t been great against him, hitting just .200 overall, but they do have five extra-base hits of their 12 hits. That signifies that when they do make contact, they hit the ball hard.

There are a few things that stand out to me here. First, I think the Rays have the upper hand in this game and should grab the win. With a line of -130 for the Rays, I think we still have value, and I’m going to take them to win. Rasmussen has been very strong. Gausman is keeping this line closer, but the Blue Jays have been awful on the road, and the Rays have been strong at home.

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Kevin Gausman pitches for the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ont., on April 7, 2026. (Cole Burston/Getty Images)

One other play worth putting a little bit of money on is a prop. Yandy Diaz has been excellent against Gausman. While he doesn’t have a ton of extra-base hits against him, he does have a .583 average against him in 12 at-bats. I like him to get 2+ total bases at +120.

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