Ah, the NFL schedule release. A time of hope, excitement, social media fun and, yes, overreactions.
Each year around this time, the league releases its full schedule for the upcoming season, so teams and their fans begin to examine it game-by-game. They look at where they got bad breaks and where they got advantages. Why does my favorite team have a bye week so early? What’s with these back-to-back-to-back road games? Looking at that first-half schedule, what’s stopping us from starting 9-0?
It’s one of the easiest times of the offseason to trot out an overreactions column, as the football-loving world tries to predict games four, five, six and seven months away without knowing who’s going to be good, who’s going to get hurt or, in some cases, who’s going to be on all of these teams.
So no, we aren’t above it. Let’s judge five possible overreactions to the 2026 schedule.
Jump to a potential overreaction for:
Bears | Bengals | Chiefs | Dolphins
Super Bowl teams
The Bears will miss the postseason
Chicago was one of the great stories of the 2025 season, reaching the NFC divisional round in Ben Johnson’s first year as head coach. Second-year quarterback Caleb Williams made brilliant fourth-quarter play after brilliant fourth-quarter play right up until the end, taking the Rams to overtime before finally bowing out.
In the long term, the arrow is definitely pointing up for the Johnson/Williams pairing — and there’s room for Williams to get even better. He finished 32nd out of 33 qualifying QBs in completion percentage (58.1%) last season and just 16th in QBR (58.2) even as he led the Bears to their first division title in seven years.
But … the Bears have the hardest schedule in the NFL, based on the 2025 win/loss records of the teams they’ll play in 2026. And while that is certainly not the only indicator of schedule strength, history says it’s definitely not nothing.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The last team to win a playoff game after entering the season with the hardest schedule by that metric was the 2016 Falcons. Over the past 10 seasons, seven of those teams missed the playoffs entirely.
Plus, the Bears won an NFC North division in which literally every other team had a winning record last season. The Lions and Vikings should bounce back to contender status, and the Packers were a playoff team last season along with the Bears. Chicago plays all three of those teams — plus the Bills — over the final month of the season.
The division and the schedule look tough enough that it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Bears take a step back — albeit a temporary one — in 2026. Remember how we all felt about the Commanders this time last year? Progress is not always linear, and the 5-12 Commanders of 2025 are a testament to that after they reached the NFC Championship Game in quarterback Jayden Daniels‘ 2024 rookie season.
The Bengals will return to the AFC Championship Game
After reaching the Super Bowl in Joe Burrow‘s second season and getting back to the AFC Championship Game the following year, Cincinnati has missed the playoffs three years in a row. Last season’s 6-11 finish was the Bengals’ first losing record since Burrow’s rookie year of 2020.
They are, however, the only team in their division that didn’t change head coaches this offseason. And they spent the bulk of it beefing up their defense, which has been their Achilles’ heel since that Super Bowl season. Cincinnati capped things off last month by trading the 10th pick to the Giants for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II a few days before the draft. The offense returns all 11 starters from 2025, and when Burrow has been healthy it has been an elite unit.
Furthermore, the Bengals — based again on the 2025 win-loss records of their 2026 opponents — have the league’s third-easiest schedule. All they need is for the defense to not be detrimental, and one assumes they can be a playoff team again without too much trouble.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Only four of their games are against teams that had winning records last season — the Texans, the Jaguars and two against the Steelers. The defense should be better, given all of the moves the Bengals have made there, and each of the other three teams in their division is in a transition phase with a new head coach. The defending-division-champion Steelers don’t even know yet whether 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers is coming back or whether they have to go with some combination of Mason Rudolph, Will Howard and Drew Allar at quarterback.
There is a major opportunity here for the Bengals, as they’ve fielded a championship-caliber offense every year Burrow has stayed healthy. They just need the other side of the ball to start chipping in again.
0:53
Schrager: Bengals’ game in Spain shows NFL’s belief in Cincinnati
Peter Schrager reacts to the Bengals getting a matchup vs. the Falcons in Spain.
The Dolphins will end up with the No. 1 draft pick
Miami moved on from GM Chris Grier during the season and from head coach Mike McDaniel after the season. It slashed the roster, cutting big names such as Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa and eating big dead-cap charges in the process. It signed free agent quarterback Malik Willis, who showed flashes as Green Bay’s backup the past two seasons but remains unproven as a full-time starter. And it traded its best remaining receiver, Jaylen Waddle, to the Broncos for a first-round pick.
This looks like a team in full rebuild mode, and the Dolphins have the second-toughest schedule based on the 2025 records of their 2026 opponents. They play nine games against teams that made last season’s playoffs and 11 against teams that had winning records.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
I’m not saying it’s impossible. I’m saying they’re going to have competition. The Cardinals, who also cleaned house on the coaching staff and don’t feature an obvious solution at quarterback, have the third-toughest strength of schedule, as the other three teams in their division each won at least 12 games (two went to the NFC Championship Game and one won the Super Bowl last season).
Things are going to be at least as tough for first-year Cardinals head coach Mike LaFleur as they are for first-year Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley. The Raiders also have the sixth-hardest schedule and appear to be at the beginning of their own rebuild.
Could the Dolphins end up as the league’s worst team? Sure. But right now, it’s an overreaction to assume they will.
The Chiefs will return to the Super Bowl
Prior to 2025, the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes Chiefs were on one of the greatest runs of all time. They’d won their division nine years in a row, played in the AFC title game seven years in a row, reached five of the previous six Super Bowls, winning three of them. Last season was the first time since Mahomes became their starter that the Chiefs’ season ended prior to overtime of the AFC Championship Game. They went 6-11, thanks in large part to an unlucky 1-9 record in one-score games, and Mahomes tore his left ACL in the loss that eliminated them from postseason contention.
Now, though, we’re hearing glowing reports about Mahomes’ recovery and his chances of being ready for the start of the season. The Chiefs used the draft to beef up their sagging defense, trading up for LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane in the first round. They spent big free agent money to sign dynamic Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker III, who they hope will help generate some of the explosive element their offense has missed the past couple of seasons. So there is every reason to think they’ll be back in contention right away.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Last year’s third-place finish didn’t really help the Chiefs schedule-wise. Based on opponents’ 2025 records, the Chiefs have the fifth-toughest schedule in the league. Of course, they play two games each against the Broncos and Chargers, who both posted double-digit wins in 2025. But they also have home games against the Patriots and 49ers, as well as road games against the Bills, Rams and Seahawks. Seven of Kansas City’s games are against teams that won at least 12 games last season, and four are against teams that won at least 14. The Chiefs’ schedule features not only the two Super Bowl participants but all four of the conference championship game participants.
This isn’t to say the Chiefs can’t overcome all of this. We’ve seen them do it before. But the past couple of seasons have shown significant cracks in the armor. Mahomes might be back by Week 1, but he also might not. And even if he is, can we expect him to be his same old brilliant self right from the jump?
Never put anything past Mahomes and Reid, but the Chiefs have to build back up. More than we’re inclined to think with them.
A team that missed last season’s playoffs will play in this season’s Super Bowl
Hey, both of last season’s Super Bowl teams missed the playoffs the season before, right? Seattle might not have come completely out of nowhere, but New England sure did. And neither was among the obvious favorites when the schedule came out last May.
There’s a lot of turnover in this league year over year. The games tend to be close, the margins thin, and teams that are down always feel like they’re one big offseason move away from hitting the jackpot. Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer referenced it recently when talking about Super Bowl expectations for his own team, which hasn’t even reached a conference championship game in three decades. But the Seahawks’ and Patriots’ performances in 2025 offer hope for a lot of teams.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Lions, who were in the NFC Championship Game three seasons ago and the NFC’s No. 1 seed two seasons ago, finished 9-8 last season and missed the playoffs. They have the seventh-easiest schedule based on teams’ 2025 records, making them an easy candidate for this.
0:39
What Troy Aikman expects from Broncos-Chiefs looking ahead to Week 1
Mike Greenberg and Troy Aikman weigh in on Broncos-Chiefs kicking off “Monday Night Football” for Week 1.
We’ve already discussed the Bengals and their easy-looking schedule. The Saints have had a good offseason, feel good about coach Kellen Moore and quarterback Tyler Shough and have the second-easiest schedule by opponents’ 2025 records. The Falcons and Colts both felt like they were close last season and have the fourth- and fifth-easiest schedules, respectively. The Ravens have the ninth-easiest schedule and still have quarterback Lamar Jackson.
New England fans hate hearing it, but last season’s schedule was a huge reason for its division title and playoff seeding. Again, margins in this league are thin, and the schedule can make a huge difference. If nothing else, it’s one more reason for teams that just missed out in 2025 to think they can get into this season’s dance and make some noise.
