Atlantic front forming into tropical storm ‘rapidly moving’ west toward U.S. Virgin Islands

The potential cyclone has prompted a 48-hour tropical storm watch, which in this case warns of possible damaging winds, high surf and potential flooding of up to 6 inches of rain, for the following Caribbean islands: Guadeloupe, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Martin, Sint Maarten, Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culbrera.

The front is projected to reach those islands by early Tuesday afternoon, according to hurricane center information.

In addition, the NHC is warning the populations of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico — all to the west of those Caribbean islands under the tropical storm watch — to monitor the front, which could strike them early Wednesday.

The forecast track takes the front into the Caribbean region but then has it turning directly northward into the Atlantic, keeping it off the coast of the mainland U.S. for now.

The government of Sint Martin, a small island divided into two areas each controlled by the Netherlands and France, said it had responded to a landslide and the collapse of a newly built road surface after major rainfall.

Policy Advisor Luciano Nicholls blamed a lack of proper drainage for the disruption. “Incidents like these clearly demonstrate the need for proper and sustainable development going forward, including proper infrastructure management,” he said in a statement.

The potential cyclone’s formation appears to be consistent with the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season, which concludes there’s a 90% chance of an above-normal number of storms by the time it concludes in November.

Colorado State University’s hurricane forecast is in agreement. It says near-record warmth in the tropical Atlantic is providing ample fuel for storm development.

“Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification,” the institution said in its latest forecast paper, published Sunday.

It added, “We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls.”

Meanwhile, two million people across eastern North Carolina are under flood watches as rainfall adds to already swollen rivers.