Ramadan, Eid remittances to keep rupee stable
- Interbank rate stays range-bound through the week.
- IMF review talks begin under EFF and RSF.
- Remittances rise year-on-year, dip month-on-month.
KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee is expected to stay stable and may strengthen slightly in the near term, supported by seasonal remittance inflows during Ramadan and ahead of Eid, The News reported, citing a report released on Saturday.
The currency traded in a tight band in the interbank market this week, closing at 279.55 to the dollar on Monday and at 279.47 on Friday.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) team began talks with Pakistani authorities on Wednesday for the third review under the $7 billion Extended Financing Facility (EFF) and the second review of the $1.1 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
Upon successful completion, Pakistan would become eligible by the end of April for about $1 billion under the EFF and an additional $200 million under the RSF.
The geopolitical situation has worsened as the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, plunging the region into a new conflict.
The rupee has appreciated by approximately 60 paisa since the beginning of the year, said Tresmark, a platform that provides live financial rates, in a client note. While this increase is modest on its own, it is more significant when considering the broader context, it said.
The rupee has strengthened despite several challenges, including rising geopolitical risks and US posturing in the region, escalating tensions along the western border, isolated internal security incidents, Brent crude prices trading above $72 a barrel, a steady decline in exports, a widening trade deficit, tariff pressures and a persistent inflation differential with the US.
“Seasonal remittance inflows around Ramadan and Eid are likely to keep the rupee well bid in the near term,” the Tresmark’s report said.
“That said, most economists argue that further appreciation offers limited structural benefit, which makes the recent firmness somewhat counterintuitive,” it added.
Pakistan’s remittances rose 15.4% year-on-year (YoY) in January to $3.5 billion. However, these flows dropped 4% on a month-on-month (MoM) basis. Remittances increased 11.3% to $23.2 billion in the first seven months of the fiscal year 2026.
“Premiums have marginally improved. If costing is tight, exporters should opt for forwards, as rupee outlook continues to look stable to slightly stronger,” it said.
According to the report, the rupee’s stability is not isolated. Several high-carry or reform-backed EM currencies have also held firm despite geopolitical noise, including the Egyptian pound, Thai baht, South African rand, Brazilian real, Mexican peso, and Indonesian rupiah.
