The budget for the Department of Health and Social Care stands at nearly £190bn this year – the majority of which goes to NHS England, with just under £30bn going on things like training, public health and buildings maintenance.
On current public spending forecasts, from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the health budget will rise by 0.8% a year above inflation, meaning it will be receiving £8bn a year more by 2029-30.
However, it could be higher if health was prioritised above other areas of public spending, which has happened over the past decade.
The Health Foundation analysis says taking into account changes in the size and health of the population, an extra 3.8% a year on top of inflation will be needed to improve the state of hospital buildings, reduce the backlog in treatment and shift more care into the community.
That equates to a boost in the budget of £46bn a year by 2029-30, leaving a shortfall of £38bn. The think tank said that is based on the NHS becoming more productive too.
The Tories and Labour have only committed to above-inflation rises, while the Liberal Democrats have said they will increase spending by £8bn across health and care by the end of the Parliament.
Health is devolved, so it is up to the governments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to decide how much to spend on health from within the money available for public spending, which is largely determined by the Westminster government.
