Novo Nordisk says Wegovy pill outperforms Lilly’s oral GLP-1 in cross-trial comparison
Wegovy semaglutide tablets.
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The Wegovy pill showed more pronounced weight loss and less cumbersome side effects than Eli Lilly‘s rival pill that was approved this week, Novo Nordisk said Thursday.
Oral Wegovy demonstrated “significantly greater mean weight loss” than orforglipron, which Lilly will sell under the brand name Foundayo from next week, in an indirect study that compared the outcomes of other studies.
Novo’s findings evaluated previously published studies of the medicines and did not include any fresh data points. It will present further details of the study at the Obesity Medicine Association’s annual conference next week, the Danish drugmaker said.
A separate analysis suggested that 84% of patients favored a drug profile similar to that of semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic, to that of Foundayo, Novo said.
“These studies add to the growing body of evidence supporting the clinical strength of semaglutide and highlight attributes that patients value when choosing an obesity medicine that fits their lifestyle,” said newly-appointed Jamey Millar, executive vice president for U.S. operations.
Efficacy versus ease
It comes as Novo and Lilly are both trying to shape the narrative of their respective pills, which is broadly considered to be the start of the next phase of the weight-loss drug era. The introduction of pills as an alternative to injections is expected to scale the market, as they are more easily distributed worldwide and favored by consumers.
Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks told CNBC this week that Foundayo is more accessible and can more easily be fitted into daily routines.
Foundayo can be taken without food restrictions, while the Wegovy pill needs to be taken first thing in the morning on an empty stomach with only a small amount of water, and patients must wait at least 30 minutes before eating.
Novo CEO Mike Doustdar pushed back on the notion that those restrictions would limit uptake, telling CNBC in March that it was “absolutely not the case.”
“People are really interested because it’s the most efficacious pill right now in the market,” Doustdar added.
Earlier studies have shown that oral Wegovy results in an average of 16.6% weight loss, while Foundayo showed 12.4% on average among patients who stayed on the treatment.
Since launching the Wegovy pill in the U.S. in early January, prescriptions have skyrocketed, and over 600,000 patients have since begun taking the pill. Analysts have described it as one of the best launches of a new medicine ever, with initial uptake quicker than injectable versions.
However, following a strong launch, the number of patients being prescribed the starter dose seems to be flattening, Barclays analyst James Gordon said on Wednesday.
“Slowing new starts, we believe could be the result of patient warehousing as physicians await LLY’s Foundayo (orforglipron) launch,” Gordon wrote in a note to clients.
Several analysts said that the trajectory of Foundayo’s prescriptions will be a key share price determinant over the next weeks and months.
Expectations for 2026 Foundayo sales have come down meaningfully over the past month, from about $4 billion to $1.6 billion, said RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh on Wednesday.
“Although there have been headwinds on pricing erosion in the GLP1 space, we believe there is substantial upside with the expected Medicare Part D expansion later this year,” noted Huynh.
An RBC survey of nearly 200 patients, prescribers and payers in March indicated that Foundayo would be a preferred oral option amongst patients since it has no dosing restrictions.
The differentiation factor
Novo said Thursday that the latest findings suggest that the Wegovy pill can offer differentiation, which has become an important consideration as the anti-obesity space looks set to become increasingly competitive over the next few years. Hopeful market entrants are narrowing in on obesity-related diseases, weight maintenance, and better side-effect profiles.
The Wegovy pill also outperformed Foundayo in terms of discontinuation rates, as the cross-trial comparison published Thursday showed Lilly’s new medicine was associated with about 14 times higher odds of stopping treatment due to side effects than the Wegovy pill.
The most common side effects of GLP-1 drugs are gastrointestinal, such as nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea.
Lilly shares have outperformed Novo’s American depositary receipts over the past year.
The market for obesity drugs might not be as large as previously expected, HSBC cautioned last month, as it recommended clients sell Lilly stock which has significantly outperformed Novo over the past 18 months.
Expectations for Foundayo sales are overblown and likely to disappoint, the broker said.
