The NFC and AFC conference championship games are set.
On Jan. 25, the Broncos will host the Patriots in the AFC, while the Seahawks will face the Rams in the NFC.
In anticipation of next weekend’s conference title game matchups, we asked our NFL Nation reporters to pick one thing we learned about the teams they cover during the divisional round. Seth Walder explored how each team can advance, and Matt Bowen picked an early X factor. We also provided opening lines and game projections from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
Jump to a matchup:
NE-DEN | LAR-SEA
AFC
When: 3 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
FPI projection: NE, 60% (by an average of 3.5 points)
Opening line: NE -4.5 (41.5)
What we learned about the Patriots in the divisional round: Kayshon Boutte might be one of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL. His one-handed 32-yard touchdown catch in the fourth quarter Sunday was a highlight-reel play and ultimately knocked out the Texans — against All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., no less. The score was his fourth receiving TD on a deep fade/go route this season, including the playoffs (per ESPN Analytics and NFL Next Gen Stats). That’s tied for second most in the NFL after the Bengals’ Tee Higgins (six). Boutte played 55.4% of the offensive snaps in the regular season, totaling 33 receptions for 551 yards and 6 touchdowns. — Mike Reiss
What we learned about the Broncos in the divisional round: Call it another resounding confirmation of the Broncos’ resiliency. Denver’s overtime win over the Bills was its 13th comeback win of the season, including the playoffs; the Broncos set the NFL regular-season record with 12. It was the Broncos’ sixth win this season in which they’ve trailed in the fourth quarter. They let a 23-10 lead slip away, took the lead, lost it again in the closing seconds of regulation, then pulled another overtime escape after cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian‘s interception ended what could have been Buffalo’s winning drive. But now quarterback Bo Nix‘s fractured right ankle will be another test for the Broncos to overcome in their quest for a fourth Super Bowl title. — Jeff Legwold
Why the Patriots will win: Jarrett Stidham is starting for Denver. There are many reasons the Patriots could and should win against the Broncos, but there’s nothing quite as impactful as Denver starting a backup quarterback. And it means that in the most important phase of any football game — passing offense — the Broncos are severely outmatched.
That’s not only because of Stidham. The Patriots have, in my view, the MVP from this regular season. Drake Maye led the NFL in QBR and completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And though the Broncos’ pass rush and secondary will make life more difficult for Maye, he also led all quarterbacks in scramble rate (10.3%). Plus, Denver’s defense isn’t quite in the same league as the Texans, whom the Patriots just beat.
Maye will hardly have to be perfect because of who is on the other side. The Broncos will be diminished with Stidham at quarterback, and that should be enough for the best passing offense in the NFL. New England’s defense isn’t elite, but it’s a heck of a lot better with defensive tackle Milton Williams on the field and cornerback Christian Gonzalez‘s recent improvement in the postseason. Unless things go unexpectedly awry, the Patriots should be Super Bowl-bound. — Walder
Why the Broncos will win: In the wake of the news that Nix is out for the season, we should change this prompt to why the Broncos could win. But there’s always a chance, and for the Broncos, it’s based on their defense countering what the Patriots do best. Denver’s defense will have to deliver an AFC Championship Game win and a trip to the Super Bowl. But it can.
The Broncos’ secondary boasts a superstar cornerback in Pat Surtain II, a strong nickel back in McMillian and a hard-hitting safety in Talanoa Hufanga. The Broncos’ pass rush also has an advantage over New England’s offensive line. Powered by players such as edge rusher Nik Bonitto and defensive tackle Zach Allen, the Broncos rank third in pass rush win rate, giving them the edge over a Patriots offensive line that finished 13th in pass block win rate.
As for the Broncos’ biggest question, Stidham will be protected by arguably the league’s best offensive line. While Stidham is clearly a massive downgrade from Nix, the rest of Denver’s roster is loaded. That gives the Broncos a shot (albeit a long shot) to advance. — Walder
0:58
C.J. Stroud picked off 4 times in first half by Patriots
C.J. Stroud throws four interceptions in the first half for the Texans vs. the Patriots.
Early X factor: Hunter Henry, TE, Patriots. The Broncos’ defense allowed an average of 59.7 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this season, and we just watched Buffalo’s Dalton Kincaid catch six passes for 83 yards and a score in the divisional round. Henry can work the seams, while also being an outlet for quarterback Drake Maye. Plus, Henry caught five touchdowns in the red zone this season. — Bowen
Matchup background: The Broncos and Patriots have not played since 2023, when New England beat Denver 26-23 in Russell Wilson‘s last game with the Broncos. Denver owns a 4-1 advantage over the Patriots in the playoffs, including AFC Championship Game victories after the 2013 and 2015 seasons. The latter, a 20-18 Broncos victory, came after the Patriots failed to convert a game-tying 2-point conversion in the final seconds. — ESPN
Stat to know: Stidham’s last pass attempt in a game came Jan. 7, 2024, against the Raiders. When the AFC Championship Game kicks off, it will be 749 days since his last attempt. That would be more than double the longest span between pass attempts for a QB starting a playoff game since 1950. The current longest is Joe Webb at 370 days, which ended when he started a 2012 wild-card loss for the Vikings. — ESPN Research
NFC
When: 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
FPI projection: SEA, 54% (by an average of 3.5 points)
Opening line: SEA -2.5 (47.5)
What we learned about the Rams in the divisional round: The Rams have learned from their early-season losses in close games and figured out how to win. Coach Sean McVay has said many times this season that Los Angeles has become “calloused” because of how it lost games at times, including in Week 16 in Seattle. But in the Rams’ two playoff victories, they came back late on the road. They’ll need that experience going into a hostile Lumen Field, where they blew a 30-14 fourth-quarter lead earlier this season. — Sarah Barshop
What we learned about the Seahawks in the divisional round: The Seahawks might be the most complete team in the playoffs. The Seahawks’ top-rated special teams produced a 95-yard touchdown return by Rashid Shaheed on the opening kickoff Saturday. Seattle’s No. 1-ranked scoring defense held San Francisco to a pair of field goals. Seattle’s run game continues to emerge, finishing with 175 yards and doing most of the heavy lifting for the offense as quarterback Sam Darnold battled through an oblique injury. The Seahawks look like Super Bowl contenders even if Darnold is limited going forward. The supporting cast is that good. — Brady Henderson
Why the Rams will win: They have the advantage at the game’s most important position. Sometimes, the most obvious reason is the right one. Matthew Stafford might be the league’s MVP. Darnold, even after a good performance in the divisional round, ranks 27th in the NFL in QBR since Week 11. What happened in Week 11? He played the Rams for the first time. And L.A. didn’t fall for the illusion of the Seahawks’ heavier personnel, playing mostly nickel against 12 personnel.
From that point on in the season, Darnold’s air yards per target dropped — as did his accuracy. As dominant as the Seahawks’ defense is, the Rams’ offense ranked No. 1 in EPA per play entering Sunday — even if it hasn’t always felt that way recently. But thanks to Stafford and wide receiver Puka Nacua through the air, as well as a running game with the highest success rate in the NFL (50%), the Rams’ offense has been incredible this season. And though their defense has had shaky moments, it still ranked 10th in EPA per play entering Sunday. So while the Rams have the advantage at quarterback, that’s not the only reason they’ll win. — Walder
Why the Seahawks will win: Because they’re the hottest team in football. Seattle is coming off back-to-back games against San Francisco in which the Seahawks put the 49ers’ strong offense in a vice grip. San Francisco scored nine points combined. So while the Seahawks split with the Rams in the regular season, Seattle’s defense looks better now than at any point this season.
Seattle can serve as the perfect counter to Los Angeles’ potent offense. The Rams had the highest success rate on designed runs in the regular season, but the Seahawks ranked first in defensive success rate on designed runs. And the Seahawks can get after the quarterback if they get the Rams behind the sticks.
Offensively, Darnold played well Saturday, quieting some fears about his performance in the second half of the regular season. Seattle’s running game has been better, too. Add in home-field advantage and an extra day of rest, and the Seahawks should be strong favorites. — Walder
0:17
Rams advance to NFC championship with walk-off FG in OT
Harrison Mevis makes a 42-yard field goal to give the Rams a 20-17 win vs. the Bears.
Early X factor: Kyren Williams, RB, Rams. He will continue to share carries with Blake Corum, but Williams should get a steady volume against Seattle. And he has seen a boost in receiving volume, with at least three catches in each of his past four games. The Rams can also use Williams as a matchup player on backfield releases. Seattle had the NFL’s best defense in yards allowed per carry (3.7) over the regular season, but Williams is coming off a two-touchdown, 117-yard performance in Chicago. — Bowen
Matchup background: The Seahawks and Rams split their two regular-season meetings. Both were tight, as the Rams prevailed 21-19 at home in Week 11 while the Seahawks won a 38-37 overtime thriller in Week 16. They’ve met twice in the playoffs, too, with the Rams winning both meetings, most recently beating Seattle in the wild-card round after the 2020 season. — ESPN
Stat to know: The Seahawks are 3-0 at home in conference championship games, and they are 3-0 all time in NFC Championship Games. Their only loss in a conference championship game was in the 1983 AFC Championship Game on the road against the Raiders. — ESPN Research
