Men’s Big 12 Bracketology preview: NCAA tournament predictions for every team
It took a truly unprecedented season from the SEC to dethrone the Big 12 as the top conference in college basketball in 2024-25. The SEC remains fabulous, but no longer historic, and now the Big 12 has a realistic shot to regain its crown in 2025-26.
It doesn’t hurt that two of the four projected No. 1 seeds as the calendar flips to a new year, Arizona and Iowa State, have raced to their lofty perch with a combined 26-0 record. That’s after being picked fourth and fifth in the Big 12 preseason poll, respectively. BYU and star freshman AJ Dybantsa are predictably dangerous, leaving preseason No. 1 Houston as an under the radar national title contender.
And we have yet to mention Kansas and injured freshman Darryn Peterson, or Texas Tech and AP preseason All-America selection JT Toppin. If either or both can come close to the conference’s top four, the Big 12 could set a new bar.
The Big 12 begins conference play on Jan. 2.
Final Four contenders
Arizona Wildcats
Iowa State Cyclones
BYU Cougars
Houston Cougars
Arizona, along with Michigan, has been on another level all season. But any of these four could not only reach the Final Four, but win it all. Houston is especially itchy to avenge its loss to Florida in last season’s national championship game.
Likely tournament teams
Kansas Jayhawks
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Picked third and sixth, respectively, in the Big 12 preseason poll, neither Texas Tech nor Kansas quite lived up to expectations during nonconference play. Still, it wouldn’t be surprising if either reaches the Sweet 16.
Possible tournament teams
Baylor Bears
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Arizona State Sun Devils
TCU Horned Frogs
Kansas State Wildcats
Baylor is the most likely of this bunch, but the conference’s coattails could be long enough to propel one or two more into the bracket.
Sleeper team
Johnny Dawkins has quietly led UCF to an 11-1 record heading into its conference opener, with its only loss coming vs. an unbeaten Vanderbilt team. It can make an enormous statement when Kansas comes to Orlando on Saturday.
Long shots
Colorado Buffaloes
West Virginia Mountaineers
Cincinnati Bearcats
Colorado’s loss to Northern Colorado and Cincinnati’s defeat to Eastern Michigan stand out for the wrong reasons. West Virginia, meanwhile, lacks a signature win.
Maybe next year
Utah hasn’t been close to the tournament since 2020 or actually made the field in a decade. First-year coach Alex Jensen is going to need some time.
Key games to watch
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Feb.7: Houston at BYU (ESPN). Anyone discounting either set of Cougars does so at their own risk.
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March 2: Iowa State at Arizona (ESPN). The only scheduled meeting between projected 1-seeds.
