Men’s bracket watch: The fourth 1-seed, the Big Ten’s title hopes, potential upsets

We won’t know the actual men’s Elite Eight, or any of the teams who could cut down the final nets, until late March.

All we have right now, at the beginning of the 2024-25 season, are questions, most of which cannot be answered in this first week.

That won’t stop us from trying — after all, we’re in the prediction business!

As a new campaign rolls out in earnest, here are eight topics I’ll be following closely for each update of Bracketology.

1. Who is the fourth No. 1 seed?

It says here that Kansas, Alabama and Duke — in an order of your liking — will separate from the pack as the three best teams in college basketball this year. On our board, that makes them the three most likely No. 1 seeds on Selection Sunday. Gonzaga is in the fourth spot now after a whopping opening night rout of Baylor, but I could see any number of possibilities when all is said and done.

Logic suggests the Big East champion (UConn or maybe Creighton) will be heard from, along with whoever survives the Big Ten grind (our pick is Purdue). Recent history also tells us not to discount the possibility of a second Big 12 entry (Houston or league newcomer Arizona, perhaps?).

2. Which conference gets the highest number of NCAA bids?

The new-look “Power 4” conferences conveniently include exactly 68 schools.

No, they won’t all make the NCAA tournament — not yet, anyway — but they are going to dominate the at-large pool like never before. The 2011 Big East record of 11 bids (out of its 16 teams) is going to fall very soon, perhaps this year, with the SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten all deep enough to get there.

If I had to bet a mortgage payment, it’d be the SEC in 2024-25. Just remember everything has to break perfectly for record bid numbers to occur — even for a megaconference — as all those extra league games, by necessity and statistics, produce a lot of extra losses.

3. Which conference is most on the rise?

No one has been more critical of the ACC in recent years than yours truly. Declining NCAA bid numbers, and seedings, are troubling. But the conference continues to overperform in the actual tournament (hardly insignificant), and the league was the victim of some serious bad luck this past March: The record number of Championship Week bid stealers disproportionately impacted the ACC (Pitt, Wake Forest), along with the one-time anomaly of Louisville being a Q4 opponent. The Cardinals are no longer in that spot.

It seems the ACC has hit bottom and is on its way back.

Honorable mention: The Atlantic 10 has up to five worthy at-large candidates: Dayton, Loyola Chicago, Saint Joseph’s, Saint Louis and VCU. It’s poised for a big-time rebound.

4. Which conference is keeping its commissioner up at night?

The 25-year NCAA title drought for the Big Ten has reached laughable levels. The conference consistently receives the most tournament invites, and even more consistently fails to advance its teams. In the NET era, only 11.4% of its 50 entries have reached the second weekend. By comparison, 51.7% of the ACC’s 34-team allotment in that same period reached at least the Sweet 16. The 2024-25 campaign is shaping up similarly, with the Big Ten trading more in quantity than quality.

Dishonorable mention: The Mountain West has collected 14 bids in the past three years, including a record six last season. Teams not named San Diego State have a dismal 2-12 tourney record in that time, so we should expect some regression to the mean for the MW coming up.

5. Which notable team in the projected field could actually miss the tournament?

This might be picking on the low-hanging fruit, but the mess that is Memphis could be even more notable by March. Beyond their roster turmoil, the Tigers have two additional factors working against them: (1) UAB might be better and (2) the American Athletic Conference as a whole might not be strong enough to produce an at-large team.

6. Which team currently out of the field is going to make me look bad?

Villanova has the potential to be very good, especially with Eric Dixon returning to play power forward instead of center. The Wildcats again went heavy in the transfer portal but seem to have a better mix of newcomers than a year ago, especially in the backcourt with local pickups Jhamir Brickus (LaSalle), Tyler Perkins (Penn) and Wooga Poplar (Miami, via Philly). The Cats were voted seventh in the Big East, but third-year coach Kyle Neptune desperately needs that ranking to be wrong.

7. What winner of a one-bid conference could be in the Sweet 16?

Grand Canyon was 30-5 a year ago and knocked off 5-seed Saint Mary’s to reach the round of 32. The Lopes and star forward Tyon Grant-Foster are back for more and could easily win at least two NCAA games in the right draw.

8. What other mid-majors could win an NCAA tournament game?

I do not count the American, Mountain West or Atlantic 10 in this category, as all are historically multibid conferences. But keep an eye on Princeton (Ivy League), Bradley (Missouri Valley), McNeese (Southland) and deep sleeper High Point (Big South). By the way, Saint Mary’s doesn’t count either, after three straight 5-seeds and a pair of tourney wins.