Men’s SEC Bracketology preview: NCAA tournament predictions for every team
I am old enough to remember when the SEC managed only three NCAA bids three times in a four-year span (2013-2016). Old enough to remember it being the No. 7 conference, just decimal points ahead of the Atlantic 10, in 2012-13. Even old enough to remember when Missouri and Texas A&M, not to mention Texas and Oklahoma, were in the Big 12.
So while last season’s monumental 14 bids were a bit of a perfect storm, the SEC’s basketball fortunes had been trending upward for some time. It’s why the league’s bid average has climbed above even the 18-team Big Ten since the COVID interruption of 2020. The hoops have gotten so good in the SEC that its gridiron performance is an afterthought (wink, wink …).
What the conference can’t possibly repeat, however, are its double 1-seeds, double 2-seeds and twin Final Four entries (Auburn and national champion Florida) of 2025. That kind of dominance is unsustainable, leaving us with an SEC that is simply excellent instead of generational. It’s also not a bad place to land the plane.
The SEC begins conference play on Jan. 3.
Final Four contenders
Vanderbilt Commodores
Alabama Crimson Tide
The SEC will be hard-pressed to field one Final Four entrant, much less repeat its double dip of last season. However, its leading candidate being Vanderbilt is an equally good story.
Likely tournament teams
Tennessee Volunteers
Arkansas Razorbacks
Florida Gators
Auburn Tigers
Kentucky Wildcats
It’s got to be a bit disappointing for the folks in Gainesville and Lexington to have their home teams in the second tier of SEC contenders. But it’s a long season, and all five schools here could change their fortunes dramatically.
Possible tournament teams
LSU Tigers
Oklahoma Sooners
Texas Longhorns
Texas A&M Aggies
A year ago, LSU (14-18, 3-15 conference) was one of the SEC’s two misses. A likely must-win year for Matt McMahon has produced a 12-1 nonconference slate so far — albeit against a sub-250 schedule. The Tigers’ “real” season begins today at fellow bubbler Texas A&M.
Sleeper team
Georgia lost its NBA first-rounder Asa Newell but is right back in the thick of things for an NCAA bid. The Bulldogs, like LSU, went 12-1 nonconference, with wins over Georgia Tech, Xavier, Florida State and Cincinnati that are solid, if unspectacular. A .500 league record should be enough for an NCAA return date.
Long shots
Missouri Tigers
Ole Miss Rebels
Both have underachieved a bit, relative to preseason polling, and will have a difficult time posting the necessary SEC record to dance.
Maybe next year
Mississippi State Bulldogs
South Carolina Gamecocks
The 6-seed Gamecocks of 2024 (26-8, 13-5 SEC) are looking like an outlier. As for Mississippi State, the Bulldogs had nonconference opportunities but could not close the deal when it counted.
Key games to watch
-
Jan. 7: Alabama at Vanderbilt, an early SEC showdown that could set the tone for the conference race.
-
Jan. 24: Auburn at Florida, a Final Four rematch, which the Gators could use to propel them to a repeat.
