Seahawks-Patriots: Super Bowl 2026 predictions, picks, odds

The Seahawks and Patriots are headed to Super Bowl LX, which kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET on Feb. 8 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.

With two weeks until the big game, we’re taking an early look at the matchup. Lindsey Thiry sets it up with what to know, and our NFL Nation reporters Mike Reiss and Brady Henderson pick reasons for hope and concern for both teams. Seth Walder gives you some key stats, Matt Bowen picks a key matchup and Eric Moody pulls out an X factor. Aaron Schatz answers big questions surrounding the final game of the season, Dan Graziano judges one potential overreaction and Ben Solak explores the quarterback matchup. And finally, we have early gut-reaction predictions from our experts.

Does the Patriots’ secondary stand a chance against Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba? Will New England’s Drake Maye become the fifth quarterback to win a Super Bowl in their second NFL season? Here’s everything you need to know.

Super Bowl LX: Seahawks vs. Patriots

When: Sunday, Feb. 8, 6:30 p.m. ET on NBC
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara | Tickets
Opening line: SEA -3.5 (O/U 46.5)
ESPN’s Football Power Index: SEA, 60.2% (by 3.6 points)

Forever ingrained in Seahawks and Patriots lore is cornerback Malcolm Butler‘s interception at the 1-yard line to secure a 28-24 victory in Super Bowl XLIX at the end of the 2014 season. This upcoming contest marks the ninth time there has been a Super Bowl rematch. New England has been involved in four of those matchups, the most by any team. For the Patriots, it’s a return to the Super Bowl after a six-year absence following the end of the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady dynasty. And for the Seahawks, it will be their fourth appearance.

Tucked away in the Pacific Northwest, coach Mike MacDonald and the Seahawks quietly built on their 10-7 record in MacDonald’s first season, winning the NFC West and earning the No. 1 seed in Year 2. In his first season in Seattle, quarterback Sam Darnold joined Tom Brady as the only quarterbacks to put together back-to-back 14-win seasons. Boasting the top scoring defense (17.2 points allowed per game), the Seahawks also received a midseason boost with the acquisition of wide receiver Rashid Shaheed. His standout play as a return specialist provided sparks in multiple key wins.

In his first season as New England’s head coach, Mike Vrabel orchestrated a turnaround that took a 4-13 team to the Patriots’ first division title since winning 11 straight from 2009 to 2019. They are the sixth team to reach the Super Bowl after having five or fewer wins in the previous season. The last team to win a Super Bowl in this scenario was the 2001 Patriots — Brady’s first season as the starting QB. After a 1-2 start in 2025, the Patriots won 13 of their next 14 games behind a top-five scoring offense and defense. Second-year quarterback Drake Maye led the NFL in Total QBR (77.1) this season. — Thiry

Regular season: 14-3 | NFC seed: No. 1

Reason for hope: Defense wins championships, and the Seahawks have an elite one. Mike Macdonald’s unit allowed the fewest points in the NFL in the regular season at 16.4 per game, and then it turned it up a notch in the divisional round against the 49ers. Seattle held San Francisco to a pair of field goals, got three takeaways and forced three more turnovers on downs. The Seahawks have now gone 27 straight games without allowing a 100-yard rusher despite facing Christian McCaffrey twice, Kyren Williams twice, Bijan Robinson once and Jonathan Taylor once over the past two months.

Reason for concern: Turnovers. Only Minnesota committed more than Seattle’s 28 during the regular season. Sam Darnold made the Pro Bowl despite leading all players with 20 turnovers, though he didn’t give the ball away in the Seahawks’ past three games. Darnold is also playing through an oblique injury, and Seattle’s offense just lost one of its most reliable players — running back Zach Charbonnet — to an ACL tear. — Henderson

Regular season: 14-3 | AFC seed: No. 2

Reason for hope: Quarterback Drake Maye. His knack for making plays with his arm and legs is unique, as is his pinpoint accuracy on deep passes — even when he’s escaping the pocket. In the regular season, he led the NFL in completion percentage (72%), passer rating (113.5) and yards per attempt (8.93). Maye’s 37-yard run in the wild-card round set a franchise record, and he had a 28-yarder to set up the Patriots’ go-ahead field goal in the AFC title game. Paired with a defense that has proven it can play at a high level in the postseason, it’s a potentially dangerous combination.

Reason for concern: Turnovers — same as the Seahawks. Maye fumbled six times in the Patriots’ first two playoff matchups (losing three of them), and he also had a tipped-ball interception against the Chargers. So, the Patriots have been living dangerously at times with ball security. Youth is also a consideration. In addition to four undrafted free agents, the Patriots have all 11 draft picks from 2025 on their roster. The Super Bowl is a big stage for rookies. — Reiss

Stats to know

Every number tells the same story against the Seahawks’ defense: You cannot run on it. Opponent success rate on designed runs against Seattle is just 34%, the lowest in the NFL. Its EPA per play on those plays is minus-0.15, also the lowest. And opponents have managed minus-34 first downs over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, when rushing against Seattle. That’s by far the lowest in the league (next closest is the Texans at minus-14).

Seahawks get critical fourth-down stop in red zone

Devon Witherspoon breaks up Matthew Stafford’s pass to Terrance Ferguson in the end zone on fourth down.

The Patriots are the best team in the most important part of football: passing offense (0.23 EPA per play). They also have the largest gap between their EPA per play on designed passes versus designed runs (0.28 difference), so it’s critical that they put the ball in Maye’s hands as much as possible in the Super Bowl. And they’ve done that up to this point with the second-highest pass rate over expected (plus-4%) in the NFL, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

Inside the matchup

Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. the Patriots’ quarters coverage

The Patriots played quarters coverage (four deep, three under) on 19.5% of opponent dropbacks during the playoffs. Here, the Seahawks can scheme for Smith-Njigba out of slot alignments to create vertical matchups versus New England safeties Jaylinn Hawkins and Craig Woodson. Smith-Njigba caught 24 passes for 335 yards out of the slot this season. This is where coordinator Klint Kubiak can set up his shot plays for Darnold. — Bowen

Seahawks’ X factor: Rashid Shaheed, WR

Shaheed brings a unique skill set to the Seahawks’ offense. He’s explosive and capable of scoring whenever he touches the ball as a receiver, as a runner or on special teams. That ability was on display in the NFC Championship Game, when he hauled in a 51-yard reception. With wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and running back Kenneth Walker III expected to command significant attention from New England, Shaheed could be in favorable matchups on the league’s biggest stage.

Patriots’ X factor: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB

Stevenson has emerged as an under-the-radar star for the Patriots. After a rough start to the season marked by fumbling issues, he was given the opportunity to turn things around following Antonio Gibson‘s season-ending injury and has delivered since Week 6 while playing alongside rookie TreVeyon Henderson. Running behind an inconsistent Patriots offensive line, Stevenson has still been productive, totaling 58 touches and 280 yards in three postseason games. Vrabel trusts Stevenson, and the running back is expected to be leaned on heavily by the Patriots in the Super Bowl. — Moody

Answering big questions

Did Sam Darnold show major improvements this season, or was he again carried by a strong defense?

The answer is both. Darnold showed major improvements in the first half of the regular season and then regressed substantially as the Seahawks’ defense got even better. Remarkably, he finished the 2025 regular season with a lower QBR (56.0) than he had last season in Minnesota (57.3). Although he had a higher completion rate and was sacked fewer times, he also had more interceptions and fewer touchdowns.

And look at how Darnold’s stats are split this season: In Weeks 1-9, Darnold had a 77.9 QBR. At that point, he was second in the NFL behind Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. For Weeks 10-18, Darnold had a 37.4 QBR, which ranked 26th. Every part of Darnold’s performance declined in the second half of the season.

Did the Patriots have the easiest path ever to the Super Bowl by strength of schedule?

Based on my DVOA ratings, the Patriots had the third-easiest regular-season schedule since 1978. Their average opponent had a minus-13.3% DVOA. In other words, their average opponent was about as good as Washington or Miami in 2025.

However, the two teams with easier schedules by average DVOA of opponents also made it to the Super Bowl. The 1991 Bills had the easiest schedule by DVOA (minus-14.8%), followed by the 1999 Rams (minus-14.5%).

We also have to consider the opponents these teams faced in the playoffs. The Patriots started out with the Chargers, who ranked 17th in DVOA. Houston was fourth and Denver was seventh.

However, the 1991 Bills and 1999 Rams had easier playoff roads because they started out against nobody. (First-round byes are a lot easier than facing an average team such as the Chargers.) The 1991 Bills faced the Chiefs (fifth) and then the Broncos (15th). The 1999 Rams had it a little tougher, facing the Vikings (sixth) and the Buccaneers (10th).

The Patriots arguably had an easier path because of circumstances. For example, they beat the Broncos’ backup quarterback and played the Texans without wide receiver Nico Collins. But the Rams also faced Tampa Bay’s backup quarterback in the NFC Championship Game.

It’s worth noting two teams before DVOA ratings began: the 1970 Baltimore Colts and the 1972 Miami Dolphins. They faced the easiest regular-season schedules based on their opponents’ win-loss record. Baltimore’s opponents were at .352, Miami’s opponents at .357 and the 1999 Rams’ opponents at .363. This year’s Patriots opponents are at .429. — Schatz

Drake Maye seals the AFC Championship with gutsy scramble

Drake Maye keeps it for a crucial first-down conversion to seal a win over the Broncos and send the Patriots to Super Bowl LX.

Judging one overreaction: Darnold will get a huge contract extension this offseason

Yes, overreaction. First of all, the Seahawks don’t need to give Darnold an extension. He is signed through 2027 with no guaranteed money left on his deal beyond what they’ve already paid him. Darnold made $37.5 million this season, in the first year of the three-year, $100.5 million deal he signed with the Seahawks in March. Now, Seattle has to decide by five days after the Super Bowl whether it wants to pay his $15 million 2026 roster bonus. Because the Seahawks are playing in the Super Bowl, it’s probably fair to expect them to pick up that bonus, and he’ll make an additional $12.5 million in salary in 2026.

The point here is about the Seahawks and the way they view the quarterback position. They traded Russell Wilson when they knew he was going to get another top-of-market extension, and they didn’t believe he was still the type of player who deserved that. They traded Geno Smith when he rebuffed their attempts at a contract extension. And pivoting to Darnold has worked. The picks the Seahawks got for Wilson helped them build an NFC champion roster, and Darnold has so far been good enough to lead them to the Super Bowl. But Seattle thought Darnold was worth $33.5 million per year in free agency, and I believe it still values him in that range.

If Darnold were to insist on a big-money contract extension and threaten to sit out, Seattle’s recent behavior tells us it’d probably trade him and find a capable replacement to plug into its deep, excellent roster. The Seahawks don’t want to spend great-QB money on a good — even very good — QB. They don’t believe that’s the best way to build a championship roster. If they had Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen or Joe Burrow or another clearly elite quarterback, they’d be willing to pay him at the top of the market, as they were early in Wilson’s career. But if anything, getting to the Super Bowl with Darnold only proves them right in their belief that they can figure it out at QB. — Graziano

The quarterback matchup

Darnold vs. Maye

If anyone had this Super Bowl quarterback matchup on their bingo card, I’d like to see it. What an improbable pairing — but certainly well-earned by both to make it here.

By the numbers, Maye has had a rough postseason. His two worst games of the season, by EPA per dropback and success rate, were the two most recent wins against the Broncos and Texans; the win over the Chargers in the wild-card round was also a below-average performance in both metrics. His sack rate has doubled in the playoffs, from 7.8% to 14.7%, and his completion percentage has gone from 9.1% above expectation to 5.8% below expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Of course, we have an easy way to explain this: He has played three excellent defenses, and it was snowing substantially against two of them (the Texans and Broncos). Maye hasn’t been at his best, and it’s fair to say that the combination of his first playoffs and the softer regular-season schedule has affected his game. Now, he gets the Seahawks’ defense, which only one quarterback has reliably beaten this season: Matthew Stafford, Maye’s competition for MVP.

Even Darnold’s staunchest believers wondered about his ability in big games and key moments. This Rams’ defense, in particular, had flummoxed Darnold as a Viking last postseason and again as a Seahawk in this regular season. But he was stellar against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, avoiding turnovers while making aggressive throws between zones. He was fearless in a spot many expected him to fear.

Much of Darnold’s success is to the credit of Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, a stellar schemer with a deep menu of screens, rollouts and play-action passes to create open receivers and explosive plays without taxing Darnold too much. The Patriots know the scouting report on Darnold — he can fade under the big lights and will spiral into bad turnovers under a heavy dose of pressure. But with two weeks of prep, who will win the game-planning battle? Vrabel and his defensive staff in building out those pressure plans; or Kubiak, with all of his clever machinations?

Darnold is one of the highest ceiling/lowest floor quarterbacks in the league. Maye, a 23-year-old playing in the Super Bowl against an elite defense, has a similarly wide range of outcomes. Hold on to your butts! — Solak

Betting nuggets

This is the first Super Bowl in over 50 years between two teams that entered the season with at least 60-1 odds to win the Super Bowl.
Underdogs are 5-0 against the spread and 4-1 outright in the past five Super Bowls, including three straight outright wins.
Mike Vrabel (-400) and Mike Macdonald (+450) were the two favorites to win Coach of the Year in the closing odds at DraftKings. No one has won Coach of the Year and the Super Bowl in the same season since 2003 (Bill Belichick).

More Super Bowl LX odds and trends

Gut-reaction predictions

Stephania Bell, NFL analyst: Seahawks. Their defense will be the difference-maker here; the consistent, relentless pressure up front will ultimately force costly turnovers by the Patriots.

Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Seahawks. Their defense has the team speed and physical demeanor up front to limit Maye’s ability to create explosive plays.

Dan Graziano, national NFL reporter: Seahawks. They’ve been the best team all season, hiding in plain sight, and they’ll make life brutally tough on Maye, who has already been sacked 15 times this postseason.

Dan Orlovsky, NFL analyst: Seahawks. The Patriots’ offense isn’t good enough to beat this Seattle defense.

Eric Moody, fantasy and betting analyst: Seahawks. Seattle’s defense has been formidable all season, and defense still wins championships. The Patriots are averaging just 18.0 points per game this postseason, the fourth fewest by a team entering the Super Bowl and the fewest since 1979. Two of the three teams went on to lose the Super Bowl.

Jason Reid, senior Andscape writer: Seahawks. The Seahawks’ top-ranked scoring defense will shut down the Patriots’ offense.

Aaron Schatz, NFL analyst: Seahawks. The Seahawks have been No. 1 in my DVOA ratings for most of the second half of the season, and with that defense, I’m expecting a lower-scoring Super Bowl. Seahawks 24, Patriots 18.

Ben Solak, NFL analyst: Seahawks. The Patriots’ run against elite defenses ends with the true best unit of the season. With two weeks to plan, Macdonald will have too many tools to fluster and disrupt Maye.

Lindsey Thiry, national NFL reporter: Seahawks. They’re playing textbook complementary football on offense, defense and special teams. And they have standout playmakers who can change the game in a moment’s notice in each phase.

Seth Walder, NFL analyst: Seahawks. ESPN’s FPI, which considers a team’s play on a down-to-down basis all season, sees the Seahawks as being in a different class as the Patriots. I’m inclined to trust the numbers. Seahawks by double digits.

Field Yates, NFL analyst: Seahawks. The Patriots have faced an extremely difficult string of defenses this postseason, finding ways to overcome the field in the AFC. But Seattle’s roster is superior to the rosters of its first three foes, and I believe Seattle will take home the franchise’s second Lombardi Trophy.

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