A solar storm may trigger a satellite disaster in 2.8 days, says research | – The Times of India

Today,‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‍‌ there are a lot more satellites in space than before, mostly due to the fact that companies are launching huge groups of satellites called mega constellations. The satellites provide services such as internet, navigation, and weather forecasting, but at the same time, they are the source of major problems.A recent arXiv preprint study tells us that the risks associated with the proliferation of satellites increase as the number of satellites increases. Among them are the following:

Due to these reasons, scientists are quite worried that space might become dangerous very soon if adequate measures are not taken. To illustrate the level of the risk, the scientific community has come up with a new metric, the CRASH Clock. It indicates the time left before a massive, chain-reaction collision could occur due to an absence of satellite avoidance or a failure of the tracking systems.

After a solar storm satellites may crash into each other in 2.8 days

Currently, the CRASH Clock stands at only 2.8 days. The point being made here is that less than three days is the time available for a catastrophic collision to take place in case satellite tracking is disrupted by, for example, a strong solar storm and everything goes wrong.The difference with the past is very large. It is worth mentioning that in 2018, the year before megaconstellations became a trend, the CRASH Clock value was 121 days, allowing much more time to take action against possible problems.That is to say, the orbit around Earth is becoming more and more packed and delicate, and the scientists’ message is that we have only a short period of time left to prevent a serious disaster in space if the occurrence of such an event is ‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‍‌unforeseen.

The‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‍‌ unseen dangers: Solar storms and the fragility of artificial satellites

Solar storms rank among the most uncertain natural phenomena, and they put in jeopardy satellite mega-constellations that are a serious and oftentimes unrecognised threat. The study reveals that such an event may lead to the complete or partial loss of control of spacecraft caused by the disruption of the satellite navigation and communication systems due to the solar energetic particles. In this situation, satellites might not be able to carry out the exact operations required for collision avoidance with other objects in space.The danger became obvious during theGannon Storm of May 2024, which demonstrated the extent of how congested and vulnerable the low Earth orbit has become. As a result of the incident, over 50% of the satellites in LEO had to use their propulsion systems to execute emergency manoeuvres as a reaction to the warming and expansion of Earth’s upper atmosphere caused by solar and geomagnetic activities. Unscheduled fuel consumption, as a consequence of which satellite lifetimes are cut and their locations become more difficult to predict, is among the issues that arise from the chain of events that starts with an orbit collision.On top of that, there is a possibility that a high-intensity solar storm may result in total system failure for the satellite, which is very alarming. An unresponsive satellite is an orbital hazard, as it cannot avoid collisions. Such a situation may create a scenario where the impact of one collision generates space debris that puts many other objects at risk, potentially triggering a chain reaction of satellite failures that could lead to the collapse of the entire constellation in orbit and ‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‍‌beyond.