Any rally in the stock market next week is unlikely to be sustainable until there’s clarity on the tariff front, something investors won’t get until April 2nd when a number of levies are expected to take effect. Stocks have bounced somewhat from their oversold condition this week, after a surprisingly dovish tone out of the latest Federal Reserve meeting, and some stronger-than-expected economic data, encouraged investors nervous about the impact President Donald Trump’s tariff policies will have on the U.S. economy. .SPX 5D mountain S & P 500 However, with little clarity on the tariff front, the stock market is expected to remain volatile in the week ahead, until the administration finally divulges the results of a global trade study the following week, on April 2nd — referred to as “Liberation Day” by Trump — that could result in further levies. “The uncertainty between here and two weeks from now means it’s going to be pretty hard for the market to rally substantially over that short window,” Ben Snider, senior U.S. portfolio strategist at Goldman Sachs, said on CNBC this week. “The good news is, I think the market is already pricing a quite substantial increase in tariffs on April 2nd, or shortly after April 2. So, there’s two-way risk around the announcement.” Any certainty could help bring investors back into a market where they have been unsure what to buy or sell in a world where Trump’s tariff threats could either turn out to be a negotiating tool or the start of a dramatic remaking in global trade relations. Many, worried about a worst case scenario being realized, have allocated more toward Treasurys and gold, as well as other liquid, defensive areas. “What’s really going to drive markets is Trump’s policy agenda and any news headlines that come out surrounding tariffs,” said Charles Ashley, portfolio manager at Catalyst Capital Advisors. “That’s going to be, I believe, the primary driver of the markets. And so, it’s a very kind of fluid news dynamic right now.” On Friday, the major averages closed out a winning week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average notched its first positive week in three. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each snapped a four-week losing streak. Economy hinging on tariffs How the economy is holding up is also going to be in focus in the week ahead, with some key reports due out. February personal consumption expenditures report, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is expected Friday. A number of sentiment surveys — such as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index and the Michigan Sentiment survey — are also set to release. Together, the data could alleviate or worsen the market’s recent concerns on the impact of tariffs on the U.S. consumer. While household balance sheets remain strong, and recent economic reports remain better than expected, a weakening in consumer or corporate spending from ongoing tariff uncertainty could be a self-fulfilling prophecy that drags the U.S. economy and the broader stock market. Already this week, the Fed signaled a more cautious stance in the current climate, downgrading its economic growth outlook and raising its inflation forecast — even as it indicated the inflationary impact of tariffs could be short-lived, or “transitory.” “We’ve already had a little bit of weakening in the confidence numbers,” Ashley said. “And so, next week, it’s kind of important to see the trajectory of consumer confidence, if it’s deteriorating, and what that’s going to do for the health of our economy.” Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday March 24 8:30 a.m. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (February) 9:45 a.m. PMI Composite preliminary (March) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Manufacturing preliminary (March) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Services preliminary (March) Tuesday March 25 9 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (January) 9 a.m. S & P/Case-Shiller comp.20 Home Price Index (January) 9:05 a.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank President and CEO John Williams speaks at the 2025 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference 9:10 a.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank Director of Research and Head of the Research and Statistics Group Kartik Athreya speaks on the National Economic Outlook 9:30 a.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank Head of Microeconomics Research and Statistics Group Jaison Abel speaks on the Regional Economic Outlook 10 a.m. Consumer Confidence (March) 10 a.m. New Home Sales (February) 10 a.m. Richmond Fed Index (March) 10:15 a.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank Head of the Supervision Group Dianne Dobbeck moderates panel discussion: Views from Community Bank C-Suite Wednesday March 26 8:30 a.m. Durable Orders preliminary (February) Thursday March 27 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (03/15) 8:30 a.m. GDP final (Q4) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (03/22) 8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (February) 10 a.m. Pending Home Sales Index (February) 10 a.m. Pending Home Sales 11 a.m. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Friday March 28 8:30 a.m. PCE (February) 8:30 a.m. Personal Income (February) 8:30 a.m. Michigan Sentiment final (February) 10 a.m. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr discusses at the 2025 Banking Institute, Charlotte, North Carolina
