Trump vow on new trade war sends shockwaves through supply chain, importers scramble to move up orders

Retailers and manufacturing companies have been increasingly calling logistics partners, both in the days leading up to presidential election and on Election Night, about “front loading” shipments ahead of any changes in tariff policy to be pursued by President-elect Donald Trump, who campaigned on an aggressive expansion of existing U.S. tariffs on cross-border trade.

Trump has vowed across-the-board tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports arriving into the United States and a 60%-100% tariff on Chinese imports.

“This is 2018 all over again,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics, referring to the year during which Trump first imposed sweeping tariffs in his first term. “The calls expand beyond shippers who have Chinese imports. The global tariff threat is fueling calls for frontloading from all around the globe,” he said.

Brashier expects Trump’s election to result in increased container demand and vessel bookings, which will then fuel freight rates, trucking and warehouse rates. Trucking stocks, such as J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Knight-Swift, Schneider National, and XPO, were in rally mode on Wednesday, as were freight rails including Norfolk Southern and CSX.

Among many major market moves on Wednesday as traders and investors digested the Republican wins, the U.S. dollar surged against key international currencies tied to trade on Wednesday, such as the euro and Mexican peso.

Ocean shipping stocks hit on market fears of trade decline

The knee-jerk reaction in shares of ocean carriers, was negative, with a big slump led by Maersk, even though consumer demand remains strong in the U.S. and frontloading of imports would raise ocean rates, at least in the short-term. Shipping analysts described the reaction in Maersk and its peers as excessive. But they added it is based on the belief is tariffs increase the costs of trade, in turn lowering demand and volumes. They noted that did not occur in 2018 and 2019, with volumes growing an average of 12% during those two years. “It speaks to the uncertainty of the situation, rather than the imminent doom,” wrote analyst Ben Slupecki of Morningstar in an email.

Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, said in the short-term there will be a surge in import demand for containerized goods as U.S. companies stock up ahead of any new tariffs. “Especially related to goods which are not time sensitive, said Jensen. “This will create upward pressure on freight rates in the coming months.”

According to spot ocean freight rate data tracked by ocean and air freight intelligence platform, Xeneta, the frontloading of freight during the Trump trade war on Chinese imports in 2018 fueled a rise in ocean container shipping freight rates by more than 70%.

Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at Xeneta, tells CNBC that shippers will be fearing more of the same with this latest tariff threat. “Shipping is a global industry feeding on international trade, so another Trump presidency is a step in the wrong direction,” said Sand. “The knee-jerk reaction from U.S. shippers will be to frontload imports before Trump is able to impose his new tariffs.”

He added that fears of an increase to a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, compared to 25% in 2018, would make the incentive to frontload “even greater.”

Slupecki said via email the drop in ocean carriers could present a buying opportunity, but he hesitated to say Maersk will profit from front-loading the election, as there are many other issues in global trade to weigh. He continues to hold a fair value weighting on Maersk and described the drop as an overreaction. “Potential tariffs cause uncertainty but not certain poor performance, as evidenced by performance of these names during the prior tariffs of 2018.”

“A wave of pre-ordering by retailers” ahead of new tariffs would be good for ocean carrier earnings power, according to Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta. However, he said overall volume gains are uncertain and longer-term, the issue is the potential significant slowdown in trade volumes in the coming years. “Global trade volumes have risen by 2x the rate of GDP growth this year, and are likely moderate to 1x in 2025, but could fall below that should tariffs impact trade patterns, which would be negative for ocean carrier earnings,” he wrote.

Republican tariff policy remains difficult to predict

Trump has vowed to move fast on tariffs, with Robert Lighthizer, former U.S. Trade Representative during the first Trump term, telling Wall Street money managers in recent weeks that if Trump was reelected, he could start implementing his sweeping tariff proposals quickly after taking office, according to policy analysts at Piper Sandler.

But trade experts expressed caution on reading too much into Trump’s tariff threats right now when attempting to analyze where policy ends up. Matthew Rubel, who served on the Advisory Committee for Trade Policy Negotiation for the White House and USTR for both Presidents Obama and Trump, tells CNBC he does not see a global tariff as an outcome. In negotiations, everything will be on the table.

“Tariffs are a tool to be used as an offense to ensure we can trade freely and can build jobs domestically strategically in appropriate categories,” said Rubel. “Lighthizer, under Trump brought to life a policy which negotiated from strength and focused on bilateral agreements. The deals will be crafted to ensure we gain economically. It is nuanced and not one size fits all. Trump’s administration will be clear on a business case,” he said.

Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Financial Group, said the impact of the tariffs will depend on the execution.

“Depend a lot on whether there will be selective tariffs on certain products/industries or will it be a scattershot approach that sprays them on all imports,” said Boockvar. “The former the market can tolerate, the latter I don’t believe it will.”

“It is an open question what level of tariffs will be imposed,” Jensen said. “Trump has mentioned anything between 100-500% and it is therefore completely unknown what will actually transpire. But, again, that means significant uncertainty for U.S. importers, and the only way to reduce the uncertainty will be to import goods earlier.”

Stephen Lamar, CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, said he expects Trump to announce new tariffs “in the first few days of his presidency.”

“Companies are deploying a range of strategies to mitigate the inflationary impact these import taxes will soon have. Unfortunately, there are no good tariff mitigation strategies; the challenge is to find the one that is least bad,” Lamar said.

He added that bringing in product before the inauguration is one approach, but it only provides temporary relief and the import surge this will create is further complicated by upcoming freight issues, including the threat of another labor strike at East Coast ports, and the Lunar New Year, both in the second half of January.

“We will be working with the new Administration and Congress to make sure any new tariffs do not add to the regressive, misogynistic burden hard-working Americans already feel as a result of the existing tariff structure,” Lamar said.

National Retail Federation president and CEO Matthew Shay said in an email statement that his group is prepared to work with President-Elect Trump and Congress on effective trade policies that will increase America’s competitive advantages in research, development and innovation, and will protect strategically critical infrastructure. “However, the adoption of across-the-board tariffs on consumer goods and other non-strategic imports amounts to a tax on American families. It will drive inflation and price increases and will result in job losses,” he added.

Mexico trade boom could be target

In addition to the tariffs, the future of the three-country free trade agreement that replaced NAFTA, USMCA, will also be a subject of renegotiation in 2026. President-elect Trump has already said he wants to renegotiate the USMCA deal he made in 2020. One key provision was a requirement for the countries to begin reviewing the trade deal after six years, a process that will begin in July 2026. Chinese manufacturing in Mexico to circumvent the Trump/Biden tariffs will be a likely part of the trade renegotiation.

Logistics companies serving the Mexico to U.S. cross-border trade tell CNBC new Trump tariffs can have a negative impact on historic cross-border truck trade. Through September, year-to-date cross-border trade between Mexico and the U.S. rose around 52%, a record.

Jordan Dewart, CEO of Redwood Mexico, which specializes in cross-border logistics, said leading up to and immediately after the election, his firm fielded many concerns from customers about the immediate proposed tariff changes that would impact northbound goods already in process to be shipped to the US. 

“Clearly this would have a huge impact on both U.S. and Mexican companies,” said Dewart. “With over $2 billion crossing the border daily even a short term change would have huge repercussions and could cause companies to get ahead of these changes by importing their goods ahead of schedule.”

He added it will create a short term need for storage at the U.S.-Mexico border and may increase overall trade volumes in Q4. “The short-term impact of pulling freight forward will increase freight rates, especially in Mexico, where the driver shortage and fuel prices are already causing upward pressures,” Dewart said. “The Peso, devalued 2.5% overnight, will provide some relief as most rates are negotiated in U.S. dollars.”

Proposed tariffs would cause some companies to further delay their investment in Mexico, according to Dewart, which has been booming. Many European and Asian-based companies have been investing heavily in Mexico as a way to shore up trade strategy. Companies including John Deere, which had been a target of Trump, and Tesla, have both announced recent pullbacks in manufacturing plans within Mexico.