Iran heads to presidential runoff pitting reformist against conservative

Official figures from Friday’s election showed a historically low turnout at just 40 percent, as an economic crisis and worsening political repression feed widespread public apathy.

The snap presidential poll was called last month after President Ebrahim Raisi, a hard line conservative, was killed in a helicopter crash. Iran’s electoral law requires that any one candidate must win at least 50 percent of the vote to assume the presidency. The runoff will be held July 5.

Some Iranians speculated that Pezeshkian’s place in the second round would mobilize pro-reform voters to cast ballots, while others were unsure he could usher in meaningful change.

In Iran’s Shiite theocracy, ultimate authority resides with the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on critical matters such as national security and foreign policy. But as the head of government and second-highest ranking official, the president can set economic policy, influence how strictly moral codes are enforced and guide diplomacy with other nations.

Pezeshkian, a cardiac surgeon and lawmaker, supports engagement with the West and has criticized the harsh enforcement of the mandatory dress code for women. But he was not among Iran’s most prominent reformists when he entered the race and his “public expressions of loyalty to Khamenei suggest little willingness to directly oppose the supreme leader on any issues of substance,” Gregory Brew, Iran analyst at Eurasia Group, wrote in a briefing note.

He would also likely struggle to deliver on key policy promises, Brew said, “given the opposition he would face from virtually every branch of the Islamic Republic’s governing system, where hard-liners remain dominant.”

Jalili, however, is a staunch regime hard-liner, religious conservative, and protégé of the supreme leader. His positions — including permanent hostility to the West, stricter dress codes for women, and building better ties with Russia — align more closely with Iran’s ruling establishment.

On the economic front, hard-liners like Jalili “believe in a closed economy under their control,” Ehsan Naser, a board member at Iran’s Chamber of Commerce, Industry, and Mines, told the reformist news site Entekhab on Saturday.

A closed economy creates “a breeding ground for corruption,” Naser said. “They do not believe in the active participation of society in the economy.”

In a statement Saturday, carried by the semiofficial Tasnim news agency, Jalili said the elections were “a manifestation of religious democracy, which showed that in the Islamic Republic, the power rests with the people of Iran.”

He called on Iranians to campaign for him next week and to “actively participate” in the runoff, saying the government needs the strong support of the people to confront major challenges.

High voter turnout is critical for the regime’s legitimacy and in the lead-up to the election, Khamenei urged the public go out and cast their ballots.

“The continuity of the Islamic republic depends on people’s turnout and participation,” Khamenei told reporters Friday. Authorities later extended the voting by six hours, in what analysts said was a bid to increase participation.

Iran has roughly 60 million eligible voters but only 24 million people cast their ballots Friday. Of those, Pezeshkian secured 10.4 million votes. Jalili received 9.4 million and 3 million went to Ghalibaf.

Conservative voters Saturday took to social media to vent their anger with Ghalibaf, who they said divided the hard line vote by refusing to step down.

Two other conservative candidates withdrew from the race just days before the vote, but both Jalili and Ghalibaf resisted calls to step aside.

Ghalibaf, a former military commander and mayor of Tehran, endorsed Jalili in a statement shortly after the results were announced. He called him “the candidate of the revolutionary front” and said that conservatives “should not let reformists go to work.”

At a news conference Saturday, the head of Pezeshkian’s campaign headquarters, Abdul Alizadeh, fired back.

“This not the way to run the country. What are you doing?” Entekhab quoted Alizadeh as saying.

He also dismissed criticism that the president has no power.

“Don’t say the president has no authority … the president has a lot of authority,” he said, pointing to the leader’s ability to set social and economic policy. “People choose the future of the country when electing the president.”