Gold Price Prediction 2026: Experts Say Yellow Metal Likely To Remain Elevated After Import Duty Hike
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Govt raises import duty on gold and silver from 6% to 15%, lifting MCX bullion prices, likely curbing physical demand while boosting digital gold and ETFs amid rupee weakness
Experts said the duty hike has created a fresh premium for domestic bullion, which could keep MCX gold and silver prices firm even if global prices remain largely range-bound.
Gold price outlook 2026: Gold and silver prices in India may remain elevated in the near term after the Centre sharply increased the effective import duty on precious metals from 6% to 15%, according to experts. They said the duty hike has created a fresh premium for domestic bullion, which could keep MCX gold and silver prices firm even if global prices remain largely range-bound.
Ruchit Thakur, market analyst at VT Markets, said the increase in import duties has substantially raised the landing cost of imported bullion for banks, jewellers and traders, leading to an immediate rise in domestic prices. Since India imports almost all of its gold requirement and over 80% of silver demand is met through imports, any increase in duty directly impacts local benchmark prices.
“The duty increase could boost a spike in Indian bullion prices even more if geopolitical tensions and commodity prices stay high as the rupee declines,” Thakur added.
According to him, MCX bullion may continue to outperform international prices in the short term because of the India-specific duty premium and rupee weakness. He added that traders will now closely track the movement in the rupee, global gold prices, US Federal Reserve policy, geopolitical tensions and physical demand trends in India.
Thakur noted that while higher prices could temporarily slow jewellery demand, especially from wedding and retail buyers, investment demand may shift towards digital gold, gold ETFs and silver ETFs as investors look for lower-cost alternatives to physical purchases.
Hareesh V, head of commodity research at Geojit Investments Ltd, said the duty hike could dampen physical demand in the short term but gold is likely to retain its appeal as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainty and pressure on the rupee. He believes investors may increasingly prefer digital gold and ETFs over physical holdings due to storage costs, liquidity concerns and the possibility of smuggling-related distortions.
He also pointed out that the higher duty may help contain the import bill and reduce pressure on India’s current account deficit (CAD), as gold accounts for nearly 9-10% of the country’s total imports.
Sachin Sawrikar of Artha Bharat Investment Managers said India’s demand for precious metals is structural and deeply linked to savings habits and cultural demand. According to him, sharp increases in import duty have historically encouraged informal supply channels and smuggling rather than meaningfully reducing demand.
He warned that consumers could end up paying higher premiums while jewellers face rising compliance costs and margin pressure. Sawrikar added that a more sustainable long-term solution would be expanding gold monetisation schemes and developing deeper gold-backed financial products to reduce dependence on physical imports.
Meanwhile, Renisha Chainani, head (research) at Augmont, said the duty hike, persistent geopolitical tensions in West Asia and elevated inflation concerns are reshaping the outlook for precious metals.
According to Augmont’s estimates based on World Gold Council data, every 1 percentage point increase in duty can reduce annual gold demand by around 6.4 tonnes. With the effective duty rising by 9 percentage points, annual demand could decline by nearly 57 tonnes.
Chainani said gold remains range-bound internationally, but domestic prices could remain firm because of the import duty shock. She sees international gold support near $4,500 per ounce and resistance around $4,850 per ounce. Domestically, gold prices may find support around Rs 1,53,000 per 10 grams, while resistance is seen near Rs 1,70,000 per 10 grams.
For silver, Augmont expects international prices to remain supported above $80 per ounce with resistance near $90, while domestic silver prices may move in the Rs 2,73,000 to Rs 3,20,000 per kg range.
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