2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Odds: Fernando Mendoza Clear Favorite; Simpson Moves

Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is currently the clear favorite to be selected No. 1 in the 2026 NFL Draft. 

However, it’s not over until the commissioner calls the first name, and the Las Vegas Raiders are on the clock.

Let’s check out the latest lines for the next No. 1 pick at DraftKings Sportsbook as of April 23.

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2026 NFL Draft No. 1 pick odds

Fernando Mendoza (Indiana): -20000 (bet $10 to win $10.05 total)
Ty Simpson (Alabama): +12000 (bet $10 to win $1,210 total)
Arvell Reese (Ohio State): +13000 (bet $10 to win $1,310 total)
David Bailey (Texas Tech): +14000 (bet $10 to win $1,410 total)
Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame): +25000 (bet $10 to win $2,510 total)
Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State): +50000 (bet $10 to win $5,010 total)
Rueben Bain, Jr (Miami): +50000 (bet $10 to win $5,010 total)

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Here’s what to know about the No. 1 pick oddsboard: 

The Favorite: Currently, the heavy favorite in this spot is Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, who moved all the way to -20000 from -8000 since the end of the college football season. In 2025, Mendoza had a dazzling year for the Hoosiers. Including the postseason, he passed for 3,535 yards and 41 touchdowns. The 2025 Heisman Trophy winner also helped lead the Hoosiers to a perfect season that culminated in a national championship. “The Raiders need a quarterback and Mendoza is the best one in this draft,” FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz wrote about Mendoza getting drafted first. “This is a no-brainer draft pick and no need to discuss the reasoning. Mendoza will be a Raider.”

Case for Simpson: Three days ago, Alabama QB Ty Simpson was fourth on this list. While his odds are a lengthy +12000 to be the No. 1 draft pick, it is worth noting that he’s moved into second over the last several days. According to most analysts, though, Simpson’s best chances to come off the board will come a little later in the first round. “I wouldn’t draft Ty Simpson in the first round, but I’m not the Jets,” FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz wrote about the Tide QB going 16th. “The long history of NFL failure for players who started only one year in college would concern me. But it appears the Jets seem unbothered by this. They get their franchise quarterback here.”