The NLCS matchup is set! What Mets, Dodgers need to do to reach World Series
The 2024 National League Championship Series matchup is set!
Starting Sunday, the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers will clash with a trip to the World Series on the line.
After the Mets booked their first NLCS trip since 2015 when Francisco Lindor delivered a Game 4 grand slam to knock out the Philadelphia Phillies, the Dodgers eliminated the San Diego Padres with a 2-0 NLDS Game 5 win in Los Angeles.
What have we learned about each of these teams so far? What does each side need to do to punch a ticket to the Fall Classic? And who could be the NLCS difference-makers? ESPN MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield break it all down.
New York Mets
What’s the most impressive thing about the Mets this postseason?
Castillo: The Mets’ lineup is relentless. They might not match the Dodgers’ star power, but their lineup is as deep as any in baseball. They can beat you 1 through 9. They conduct smart at-bats. They have a knack for huge hits in the clutch. And they pounce on bullpens. Look no further than Game 4 of the NLDS when, after they left the bases loaded in each of the first two innings against Phillies starter Ranger Suarez, Francisco Lindor cracked the go-ahead grand slam off Carlos Estevez, Philadelphia’s best reliever, in the sixth. One day it’s Lindor. The next it’s Mark Vientos or Pete Alonso or Brandon Nimmo or Jose Iglesias. Or someone else. There aren’t any holes in the lineup, and that could be an NL pennant-winning recipe.
Schoenfield: The Mets actually have the most starting pitching depth of any team left in the playoffs, with six reasonable options if you include Kodai Senga (who started Game 1 against the Phillies but isn’t stretched out yet). Sean Manaea pitched a gem in NLDS Game 3 against the Phillies with seven scoreless innings, and the Mets just win when he pitches — they’re 16-4 in his past 20 starts. Jose Quintana has allowed just one unearned run in 11 innings in two playoff starts, and Luis Severino, David Peterson and Tylor Megill round out the options, although Peterson has also proved to be a valuable relief option. With three days off before Game 1, the Mets can reset, get some much-needed rest and figure out which of the starters will pitch out of the pen.
Why will it (or won’t it) work against the Dodgers in the NLCS?
Castillo: The Dodgers’ bullpen was impressive in the NLDS, but relying on bullpen games won’t be sustainable against the Mets. Chances are New York will grind the Dodgers’ relief corps down if Los Angeles doesn’t get more innings from its starters. That means Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jack Flaherty, in particular, must pitch deeper into games. If not, the Mets will eventually solve the bullpen over the seven-game series.
Schoenfield: The other advantage the Mets have is three lefties in Manaea, Quintana and Peterson. Shohei Ohtani is actually human against lefties — .867 OPS compared to 1.128 against righties. Max Muncy hit .172 against lefties. Freddie Freeman, if his ankle allows him to play, was much worse against lefties (.250 average with less power versus .300 against right-handers). Gavin Lux hit .152 against southpaws. That’s why we might see Peterson back in the rotation after he pitched in relief against the Brewers and Phillies. The more lefty innings the Mets can throw at the Dodgers, the better.
Who is the one player who must deliver for the Mets to win the NL pennant?
Castillo: The Mets’ biggest weakness is the bullpen, which makes closer Edwin Diaz a pivotal character in this series. Díaz is the best reliever the Mets employ. He boasts a triple-digit fastball and a wipeout slider. But this year, after missing all of 2023 with a torn ACL, has been a roller coaster. He briefly lost his job in June. He was suspended for sticky-stuff use in June. He has been bad, and he has been great. He has been uneven recently amid heavy usage, blowing a lead in Game 2 against the Phillies and walking two batters to begin the ninth inning in Game 4 before getting back on track. The Mets need Díaz to dominate every time he’s on the mound. That means being efficient and throwing strikes. If he’s vintage Díaz, the Mets have a weapon to shrink games.
Schoenfield: Pete Alonso has to keep it going. He didn’t have his best season, and the strikeouts really piled up in August and September when he fanned 74 times in 54 games. After he hit just four opposite-field home runs in the regular season, however, all three of his playoff home runs have gone to right field as he has hit .273/.433/.727 — and you have to love the seven walks against a manageable eight strikeouts in seven games. If he stays in that kind of zone, it gives the Mets the power bat they need in the middle of the lineup behind Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo.
Los Angeles Dodgers
What’s the most impressive thing about the Dodgers this postseason?
Gonzalez: Their bullpen. Given the multitude of injuries suffered by their starting pitchers, the Dodgers knew they’d be heavily relying on their relievers in October. And so far, they’ve answered, most notably by shutting out the Padres to save their season in Game 4. The Dodgers are navigating this postseason with what amounts to a three-man rotation, and all three of their starters — Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler — have had their share of struggles. But the Dodgers also have as many as seven high-leverage relievers to deploy in relief of them.
Schoenfield: The Dodgers showing … resilience? That hasn’t exactly been their forte in recent postseasons. Even though the Dodgers won the NL West, most picked the Padres to win the series, especially after San Diego went up two games to one. But Dave Roberts and the relievers executed the bullpen game to perfection in Game 4 to get to Game 5. They didn’t let the Padres’ antics get to them. They won despite a hobbled Freddie Freeman. They showed they can win games in which Ohtani doesn’t have to be Superman. Maybe this will be the year — in a postseason when few expected the Dodgers to win.
Why will it (or won’t it) work against the Mets in the NLCS?
Gonzalez: Just look at how the Mets got here: With Francisco Lindor’s sixth-inning grand slam off Carlos Estevez, who had mostly excelled as the Phillies’ closer since coming over before the trade deadline. The Mets seem to have something special going on, and a lot of their magic has manifested late. The Mets have won six of nine games dating back to the Sept. 30 doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves that served as their regular-season finale. Five of those wins saw them come from behind, three of them after the seventh inning.
Schoenfield: OK, resiliency is nice, but at some point they’re going to need some better results from the starting pitching. Winning a five-game series with two off days while relying extensively on the bullpen is one thing, but it’s much harder to do that in a seven-game series (with the same two days off). The Mets have shown their own resiliency as well, with the dramatic comebacks to beat the Braves to clinch a playoff spot, beating the Brewers to advance, and then knocking off the Phillies — and doing so against three of the closers in the game.
Who is the one player who must deliver for the Dodgers to win the NL pennant?
Gonzalez: I’m going to throw out a name you probably didn’t expect: Enrique Hernandez. The Dodgers got him specifically for these moments and he showed why with a huge home run in Friday’s Game 5 win. They believe he has an ability to rise to the occasion in October, and he should get quite a bit of playing time in this NLCS. His production at the bottom of the order will be critical to giving Ohtani opportunities with runners on base — a situation Ohtani has famously excelled in lately.
Schoenfield: Mookie Betts. We saw him break out of his postseason slump with the home runs against the Padres, and he has to keep it going, especially given the left-handed starters the Mets will be able to roll out (and especially if Freeman’s availability and production is going to be a concern).
