As the 2024 US Presidential Election nears, all eyes are on the two main candidates — Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump.
Allan Lichtman, known as a prediction professor, has been accurately forecasting the US elections since 1984.
This year, Lichtman, 67, has predicted that Harris is in position to defeat Republican candidate Trump.
As long as traditional history repeats, Allan explained his prediction at a Brandeis Alumni Club of Washington, DC, meeting with the managing editor of the Washington Examiner.
Here are some of the main key points from the discussion.
Harris as candidate prevented fall of Democratic Party
Lichtman forcast that when President Joe Biden was the candidate, it would have been very critical for the Democrats to win because of his age and health condition.
However, choosing Harris as a candidate has helped the Democratic Party gain much strength and support.
Illegitimate polls
Lichtman said that polling often fluctuate and does not provide a clear picture of who will actually vote. He stressed polls have underestimated the Republicans in the 2016 and 2020 elections previously.
“This time, they could be underestimating Democratic voting strength — we just don’t know. Some voters don’t respond to pollsters, and they may lie,” added Lichtman.
Harris’ charisma
Harris holds the power to historically change the election by becoming the first female as well as black woman to be elected to the presidency. In contrast, Trump does not have as many attractions as Harris does.
Governing also matters
While campaigning is crucial for the presidential polls, Lichtman argues that governing of the incumbent party is more predictive of who will win the elections.
“It’s not the day-to-day events of the campaign that matter; it’s the long-term performance and strength of the party in power,” Lichtman said.
Most toxic election ever
As a very old presidential predictor, Lichtman feels that this year’s election is the most poisonous and disastrous election he has ever witnessed because he has been receiving a lot of hate comments and emails from people. He thinks that this toxicity is created by Donald Trump.
“Every day, I get the most vulgar, scurrilous, antisemitic, mean, violent kind of feedback,” he said.
