Nifty Prediction For May 18: Volatility Ahead Amid Costlier Crude, Weaker Rupee; Know Support & Resistance Levels
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Nifty Prediction For Monday, May 18: Experts say markets are expected to remain volatile and intensely headline-driven as investors watch geopolitics and oil market developments.
Nifty Prediction For Monday, May 18.
Nifty Prediction For May 18, Monday: Indian stock markets may remain volatile in the coming week as investors continue to track developments in West Asia, rising crude oil prices, rupee weakness and foreign fund outflows, according to market analysts.
Benchmark indices ended the week sharply lower, snapping their recent consolidation phase amid concerns over inflation, currency pressure and geopolitical tensions. The Nifty fell 2.20% to close at 23,643.50 during the week ended May 15, while the Sensex declined 2.70% to settle at 75,237.99.
Ajit Mishra, senior vice-president (research) at Religare Broking, said markets remained under pressure due to multiple global and domestic concerns.
“Markets ended the week lower, breaking out of their three-week consolidation phase amid lingering geopolitical tensions in West Asia, persistent weakness in the rupee, and rising inflationary concerns,” Mishra said.
He noted that crude oil prices staying above the $105-per-barrel mark have increased worries around imported inflation, fiscal stress and pressure on corporate margins.
“Persistent foreign fund outflows and weakness in the domestic currency further weighed on investor confidence throughout the week,” he added.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said investor sentiment remained fragile despite periodic recovery attempts.
“Early optimism, driven by cooling oil prices and hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East, provided some relief to markets. However, the momentum proved difficult to sustain as mixed signals emerging from US-Iran negotiations kept uncertainty elevated,” he said.
According to him, markets are likely to stay highly headline-driven in the coming week.
“Any credible diplomatic progress or easing in tensions could trigger short-covering rallies across equities, support emerging market sentiment and help moderate crude oil prices,” Ponmudi said.
“Conversely, any renewed escalation, disruption to shipping routes or deterioration in negotiations could rapidly revive risk-off positioning, intensify volatility and place renewed pressure on equities, currencies and commodities globally,” he added.
Hariprasad K, founder of Livelong Wealth, said the market mood has shifted from aggressive buying to capital preservation.
“The broader market narrative has now transitioned from aggressive dip-buying to capital preservation, with volatility expected to remain elevated through the May 18-22 trading week,” he said.
He highlighted the rupee crossing the 96-per-dollar mark as a major concern for investors.
“At the same time, Brent crude continues to trade above the $108 range amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia and supply disruptions surrounding key shipping routes,” Hariprasad said.
“For an oil-import-dependent economy like India, this creates a difficult macro environment where imported inflation risks, pressure on fiscal stability, and tighter liquidity conditions begin weighing on overall market confidence,” he added.
Santosh Meena, head of research at Swastika Investmart, said rising crude prices and rupee weakness were among the biggest triggers behind the recent market fall.
“It was a challenging week for the Indian equity markets, with both the Nifty and Sensex declining more than 2% amid rising geopolitical tensions, a sharp surge in crude oil prices, sustained FII selling, and significant weakness in the rupee,” Meena said. “Crude oil prices jumped over 7% during the week, while the rupee depreciated by more than 1.5%, slipping beyond the 96 mark against the US dollar.”
Sectors In Focus
Experts believe defensive sectors may continue to outperform if volatility persists. Ajit Mishra said pharma, FMCG and selective energy and metal stocks showed resilience during the week due to pricing power and commodity-linked earnings visibility.
He added, “IT, rate-sensitive sectors, and segments exposed to discretionary consumption may continue to remain under pressure amid inflation concerns and slowing demand visibility.”
Santosh Meena said realty and IT sectors were among the worst performers during the week, while pharma and metal stocks managed to outperform.
“Pharma and Metal stocks outperformed the broader market and managed to post gains of around 2%,” he said.
Hariprasad K also pointed to a shift in sectoral leadership. “High-beta sectors such as metals, realty, PSU banks, and oil-sensitive businesses are witnessing aggressive profit booking and volatility, while relatively defensive sectors like IT, FMCG, and pharmaceuticals continue to attract selective institutional flows,” he said.
Key Triggers For Dalal Street Next Week
Market participants will closely monitor crude oil movement, developments in the US-Iran conflict, rupee movement, foreign institutional investor activity and key domestic macroeconomic data in the coming week.
Investors will also track India’s infrastructure output data, HSBC flash PMI numbers and the remaining Q4 earnings announcements for fresh market direction.
Ajit Mishra said, “Participants will closely monitor developments in the ongoing US-Iran conflict and their implications for crude oil prices, inflation, and global risk sentiment.”
Ponmudi R added that “markets are expected to remain highly volatile and intensely headline-driven” as investors continue to watch diplomatic negotiations and energy market developments.
Nifty Outlook
On the technical front, analysts believe the 23,800-24,000 zone remains a key hurdle for the Nifty. Ajit Mishra said the index has witnessed a “decisive breakdown” from its earlier consolidation range. “Although the index has attempted a rebound in recent sessions, the 23,800-24,000 zone, which earlier acted as support, is now likely to serve as an immediate resistance zone,” he said.
According to Santosh Meena, “A sustained move above 24,000 could trigger positive momentum towards the 24,400-24,500 zone.” On the downside, most analysts see the 23,300-23,150 zone as important support for the market.
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