The surprise of the 2026 NFL draft undoubtedly came at No. 13, when a Rams organization that had been popularly linked to options at wide receiver and offensive tackle instead drafted Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson. A team that came within a few snaps of advancing to the Super Bowl with a 38-year-old quarterback could have added a player to help get over the top and win a title. Instead, it drafted a long-term replacement for reigning MVP Matthew Stafford.
To some, this was a stroke of genius. Others had the same reaction Sean McVay appeared to have in his news conference after the selection, which landed somewhere between scorn and confusion. It’ll take a few years before we know whether the decision to draft Simpson was a good one, but what we can say for sure is that this represents a very aggressive move from an organization that typically has no qualms about making those calls. They don’t all work out, but the Rams have had more hits than misses under McVay and general manager Les Snead over the past decade.
The Rams, of course, are not the first team to draft their new quarterback long before their old quarterback was done. The Packers have made a habit of this very move before dumping their old quarterbacks on the Jets. Today, though, I wanted to take a more comprehensive look at the past. What happens when a team unexpectedly takes a QB in the first round with a starter already in place? How often do those moves succeed? And how long does it take before the guy who was supposed to be the long-term answer under center gets replaced by the new quarterback in town?
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To answer those questions, I’m going to look back at 12 situations from the past 30-plus years of the NFL draft to see what happened when teams unexpectedly went for quarterbacks in Round 1. Keep in mind that we’re evaluating teams at the time they made their moves as opposed to simply from a historic perspective. So while the Chargers drafting Eli Manning (and then trading him for Philip Rivers) might have been shocking given the presence of Drew Brees on their roster, remember that the future Saints star was struggling early in his career before turning things around in 2004.
I’ll go in chronological order from most recent to least. And when I’m done, I’ll sum up what we’ve seen and wonder what that means for Simpson, Stafford and the Rams.
Jump to:
Penix-Cousins | Love-Rodgers
Jackson-Flacco | Mahomes-Smith
Wentz-Bradford | Gabbert-Garrard
Cutler-Plummer | Rodgers-Favre
Losman-Bledsoe | Culpepper-Cunningham
Druckenmiller-Young | Maddox-Elway
What about the Simpson-Stafford Rams?
Year: 2024
Selection: No. 8
Veteran’s age: 36
Games started before takeover: 14
Result: TBD
Here’s the most unique case on this list and one that should be freshly familiar to NFL fans. The Falcons signed Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal in free agency, guaranteeing the veteran quarterback $90 million at the time of signing. Cousins hadn’t taken a snap in a Falcons uniform and was coming off a torn Achilles, but the contract made it clear that the Falcons were going to give Cousins the reins for the next two years, if not longer.
Then they drafted Penix with the eighth overall pick. Cousins, understandably, was blindsided. The Falcons installed Cousins as their starter to open the season, even as the veteran was barely able to drop back and move around the pocket. He managed a 509-yard, four-touchdown game in Week 5 and was playing solid football by midseason, but a shoulder injury torpedoed his arm strength. Cousins threw nine picks in a five-game span and was benched for Penix by mid-December.
Penix was limited to nine games in 2025 by a torn ACL, and the Falcons are still evaluating what they have in him. From his perspective, this is really still incomplete. But the process of signing Cousins and drafting Penix less than two months later? That’s a mess.
Verdict: Disaster (so far)
Year: 2020
Selection: No. 26
Veteran’s age: 36
Games started before takeover: 50
Result: Love inherited the starting job, Rodgers got traded to the Jets
You probably don’t require too many reminders of the most recent case of a team with a Hall of Fame quarterback unexpectedly using a first-round pick on his replacement. After injuries and a stagnant offense had slowed Rodgers in the final years of the Mike McCarthy era, coach Matt LaFleur’s arrival was a shot in the arm. Rodgers made it to the Pro Bowl in 2019, as the Packers improved from 6-9-1 the prior year to 13-3 in the young coach’s first season with Green Bay. When the Packers came within a game of making the Super Bowl, it seemed obvious that general manager Brian Gutekunst would use the draft to add players around Rodgers before the future Hall of Famer ran off into the sunset.
When Gutekunst traded up from No. 30 to 26 at the end of Day 1, it seemed like a move for one of the top wideouts on the board, a list that included Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman Jr. Instead, it was to get Love, a Utah State product who had led the nation in interceptions during his final year at school.
Of course, Rodgers had been in this very situation at the beginning of his career, a story we’ll get to later. He responded by turning back the clock, winning his third and fourth MVP awards immediately after the decision to draft Love. Rodgers started 50 of 51 possible games over Love’s first three years in the league, with a spot start for Love after Rodgers tested positive for COVID-19 as the lone exception. Love threw just 85 passes between 2020 and 2022.
After an 8-9 season in 2022, though, the Packers decided to make their move. Rodgers was sent to the Jets for draft picks for what would be an ill-fated stay in New York. Love entered the starting lineup and made the job his own by the end of his first year, leading the Packers back to the postseason. He ranks fifth in the league in Total QBR since taking over as the full-time starter in 2023.
It’s impossible to say whether the decision to draft Love lit a fire under Rodgers, but it’s hard to argue with the results. Rodgers was an elite quarterback in two of his three years after the selection, and the Packers got meaningful draft capital for dealing him to New York. Love stepped right in and quickly emerged as a franchise quarterback.
Verdict: Wild success
0:56
Jordan Love talked with Aaron Rodgers after being selected by Packers
Jordan Love describes his emotions one day after being taken by the Packers and what he talked about with Aaron Rodgers.
Year: 2018
Selection: No. 32
Veteran’s age: 33
Games started before takeover: 9
Result: Jackson took over before the end of his first season for an injured Flacco
The transition from Flacco to Jackson, on the other hand, wasn’t managed anywhere near as smoothly. After unexpectedly leading the Ravens to a Super Bowl in his contract year, Flacco was able to extract a massive deal from then-GM Ozzie Newsome to stick around in Baltimore. The hope was naturally that Flacco could build on his incredible Super Bowl run in 2012 and his annual trips to the postseason to reach new heights, but after five consecutive trips to the playoffs during his rookie deal, Flacco made just one playoff run over the next five seasons.
Newsome traded into the bottom of Round 1 to land Jackson. While the Louisville quarterback had already won a Heisman Trophy, some skeptics suggested that Jackson’s future at the professional level was at another position, including a Chargers scout who asked Jackson to run wide receiver routes at the combine. Jackson refused, but just about everybody in the NFL passed on him in Round 1, including the Ravens, who took tight end Hayden Hurst at No. 25.
Over the first half of the season, the Ravens used Jackson in a situational role for about 10 offensive snaps per game. At 4-5, there were calls to insert Jackson into the lineup for Flacco, but even as the threat of a potential firing loomed overhead, John Harbaugh didn’t seem to be in a rush to get his first-rounder into the mix. It was only when Flacco was sidelined by a hip injury that the Ravens gave Jackson his first career start in Week 10 against the Bengals.
Jackson never looked back. The dynamic quarterback won six of seven games down the stretch to sneak the Ravens into the playoffs and likely save Harbaugh’s job in the process. The same skeptics suggested that Jackson was exposed in a playoff loss to the Chargers, only for Jackson to respond by winning the first of his two MVP awards the following season. Flacco never threw another pass in a Ravens uniform and was traded to the Broncos for a fourth-round pick after the season. Jackson hasn’t followed in Flacco’s footsteps by winning a Super Bowl, but he’s in the middle of a Hall of Fame career.
Verdict: Wild success
Year: 2017
Selection: No. 10
Veteran’s age: 32
Games started before takeover: 15
Result: Mahomes took over after sitting for most of one season
They don’t all go this smoothly! While there were certainly Chiefs fans frustrated with their offense after a late penalty cost them a playoff win over the Steelers the prior season, Smith had more than exceeded expectations in Kansas City. After a topsy-turvy time in San Francisco, Smith joined up with Andy Reid and delivered consistently solid work under center for the Chiefs. If anything, Smith might have been coming off his best season in 2016, with the 2005 first overall pick earning his second Pro Bowl nod.
It was stunning, then, when the Chiefs traded up from No. 27 to 10 to take Mahomes, giving up a third-rounder and their first-round pick in 2018. They jumped ahead of the Saints, who were debating between Mahomes and cornerback Marshon Lattimore as their pick approached at No. 11. The Saints had one of the best drafts of the past quarter-century that weekend, adding Lattimore, Trey Hendrickson, Alvin Kamara and others, but landing Mahomes might have made it the best draft in NFL history. It also would have kicked off a parallel universe in which Mahomes took over for Drew Brees, which would have been a candidate for this column.
Mahomes sat for the first 15 games of his rookie campaign before debuting with the Chiefs’ backups on offense in a meaningless Week 17 win over the Broncos. Reid didn’t call on his new pupil during a frustrating loss in the wild-card round to the Titans, which was Smith’s final game in a Chiefs uniform. He was traded to Washington for cornerback Kendall Fuller and a third-round pick.
Well, you know what happened next. Mahomes was a revelation in his second season, winning league MVP. He led the Chiefs to five Super Bowls over his first seven years as a starter, taking home three trophies, before a shockingly rough 2025 season ended with Mahomes tearing an ACL. Mahomes, now 30, is the face of the NFL. Smith suffered a career-altering leg injury in his first season with Washington and missed all of 2019 while rehabbing the injury before defying the odds to return in 2020.
Verdict: Wild success
Year: 2016
Selection: No. 2
Veteran’s age: 29
Games started before takeover: 0
Result: Bradford got traded before the start of the subsequent season
This move came out of a regime change in Philadelphia. Chip Kelly won a power struggle with Howie Roseman and the front office the prior year, landing him personnel control. During an ill-fated lone season at the helm, Kelly made significant changes to the roster, most notably trading quarterback Nick Foles with second- and fourth-round picks to the Rams for Bradford and a fifth-rounder. Kelly then reportedly attempted to sign Bradford to a contract extension, but after going 10-for-10 in the preseason as the Eagles’ quarterback, Bradford priced himself out of a new deal.
The regular-season performance didn’t live up to the preseason hype. Bradford started 14 games for an Eagles team that missed the playoffs, leading to the firing of Kelly, the arrival of Doug Pederson and Roseman’s return to personnel control. The longtime general manager subsequently undid most of Kelly’s decisions, trading away free agent additions Byron Maxwell and DeMarco Murray.
With Bradford approaching unrestricted free agency, though, Roseman signed his quarterback to a two-year, $36 million deal to stick around. He also added veteran backup Chase Daniel on a three-year, $21 million contract when that represented a significant salary for a No. 2 quarterback, seemingly giving the Eagles their one-two punch under center in what was going to be a transitional year for the organization.
And then Roseman got dealing. He sent Maxwell and Kiko Alonso to the Dolphins to jump from No. 13 to 8 before sending multiple first-round picks to the Browns and landing at No. 2. Six days after the Rams dealt all the way up to the first pick to get Jared Goff, the Eagles put themselves in position to land Wentz with the second selection. And suddenly, they had three quarterbacks.
Bradford was furious and requested a trade before the draft. The Eagles kept him on the roster and insisted he was their starting quarterback in the short term, but when Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater went down with a serious knee injury that summer, Roseman struck. He landed first- and fourth-round picks from the Vikings for the estranged quarterback, with the latter eventually turning into Super Bowl winner Josh Sweat.
It arguably worked out well for everyone involved. Bradford had his best season as a pro with the Vikings before injuries derailed his career for good. Daniel collected more than $11 million for the one pass he threw in an Eagles uniform. Wentz showed promise as a rookie and then broke out with an MVP-caliber season in Year 2, only to be derailed late in the year by a torn ACL. The Eagles replaced Daniel with Foles, who came full circle as part of this trade and famously led Philly to the Super Bowl. Wentz’s long-term tenure with the Eagles ended up being more of a roller coaster than anyone could have expected, but this transition went well for Roseman.
Verdict: Wild success
1:14
Granderson: Pederson needs to embrace QB competition
The “Around the Horn” crew share their thoughts on whether it’s the right move for Eagles coach Doug Pederson to keep QB Sam Bradford as the team’s starter even if he has not performed as well in OTAs as Carson Wentz.
Year: 2011
Selection: No. 10
Veteran’s age: 33
Games started before takeover: 0
Result: Garrard was released at the end of training camp
Well, they’re not all league-altering moves. Garrard wasn’t a superstar or future Hall of Famer like Stafford and Rodgers, but he had spent the prior four seasons as the primary starter in Jacksonville, making it to the Pro Bowl in 2009. Garrard went 8-6 as the starter in 2010, but the Jags lost both of the games he missed and came up short of the postseason. There was a perception entering 2011 that Garrard needed to elevate his game to ensure that he stuck as the long-term quarterback in Jacksonville.
Gabbert, meanwhile, wasn’t supposed to end up in Florida. While Cam Newton came off the board with the first pick, a predraft poll of NFL executives by writer Bob McGinn suggested that Gabbert was the best quarterback available in that year’s class, ahead of Jake Locker, Christian Ponder and Colin Kaepernick. The 49ers and new head coach Jim Harbaugh were widely believed to be interested in drafting Gabbert with the seventh pick.
Instead, the 49ers used that pick on Aldon Smith and their second-rounder on Kaepernick, who led them to a Super Bowl. The Jaguars traded up from No. 16 to No. 10 to select Gabbert. “I know nobody saw that coming!” tweeted Garrard at the time. Nobody might have been blindsided more than the Jaguars’ starter.
Gabbert didn’t impress in the preseason, running a 64.3 passer rating and falling to third on the depth chart, but it didn’t matter. With ownership about to sell the team, the Jaguars cut Garrard at the end of training camp, saving $9 million in cash. He never threw another NFL pass.
Luke McCown began the year as the team’s starter, but he was benched by the end of Week 2 for Gabbert, who struggled through a difficult season. The Missouri product went 5-22 in three years as Jacksonville’s starter before fulfilling those predraft expectations and ending up on the 49ers. Gabbert enjoyed a lengthy career as a backup and won a pair of Super Bowls with the Bucs and Chiefs, but nothing about this went well for the Jags.
Verdict: Disaster
Jay Cutler-Jake Plummer, Broncos
Year: 2006
Selection: No. 11
Veteran’s age: 31
Games started before takeover: 16
Result: Plummer retired after declining a trade
We have a detailed report of how everything went down here courtesy of then-Broncos general manager Ted Sundquist, who wrote all about the decision in 2015. Plummer was Denver’s best quarterback since John Elway, won 13 games in 2005 and made it to the Pro Bowl, but he faltered in the AFC Championship Game, turning the ball over four times in a loss to the Steelers.
Sundquist and coach Mike Shanahan weren’t running Plummer out the door, but a move helped them quietly climb up the draft board. They became the third party in a trade with the Falcons and Jets for John Abraham, jumping up from No. 29 to 15 in the process. On draft day, the Broncos were open to adding Matt Leinart or Cutler, but after Leinart came off the board at No. 10, the Broncos sent a third-round pick to the Rams to grab Cutler at No. 11.
Plummer started 7-4 the following season, but with the offense struggling to consistently move the ball, Shanahan controversially benched Plummer for the rookie. Cutler posted an 88.5 passer rating in his five-start cameo, but the Broncos went 2-3 and missed out on the postseason.
The Broncos kept Plummer on the roster until the following August, when they tried to trade the gunslinger to the Buccaneers, only for Plummer to immediately retire. Cutler improved in each of his two subsequent seasons, earning a Pro Bowl nod in 2008, but he butted heads with Josh McDaniels after the Broncos hired the Patriots assistant to replace Shanahan in 2009. McDaniels traded Cutler to the Bears for two first-round picks and quarterback Kyle Orton and then replaced Cutler with Tim Tebow. The Broncos won a Super Bowl with Peyton Manning in 2016, but it took them nearly two decades from this initial trade to eventually land on a player who appears to be their long-term quarterback in Bo Nix.
Verdict: Messy
Year: 2005
Selection: No. 24
Veteran’s age: 35
Games started before takeover: 48
Result: Favre played three more seasons before “retiring”
Arguably the most famous of these unexpected quarterback transitions, the Packers’ decision to draft Rodgers in 2005 was as big a blindside as the one to select Love, his long-term replacement, 15 years later. Rodgers was expected to be in the running for the first pick in 2005, but after the 49ers selected Alex Smith, teams passed on Rodgers. Troy Williamson, Erasmus James and even converted quarterback Matt Jones were selected before the Packers mercifully (and stunningly) ended Rodgers’ slide at No. 24.
Like Love, Rodgers sat for three seasons in Green Bay, throwing 59 passes of little distinction when filling in for an injured Favre. Rodgers’ most notable contribution was breaking his left foot late in a 2006 loss to the Patriots. Despite the Packers’ 4-12 record behind a 29-interception season from Favre in 2005, they didn’t rush their first-round pick into the starting lineup. It was only after 2007, when the Packers came agonizingly short of the Super Bowl and Favre temporarily retired, that Rodgers was pushed into the starting role.
Of course, Favre’s retirement lasted about six months before he got the itch to play, and the Packers dealt him to the Jets for a third-round pick. Rodgers took over and immediately proved himself, earning an extension after his seventh career start. The Packers went 6-10 that season, but Rodgers had them in the playoffs the following season, won the Super Bowl the season after and claimed the first of his four MVP awards the subsequent season.
Verdict: Wild success
0:51
Driver explains difference between Favre and Rodgers
Former Packers wide receiver Donald Drive joins Mike & Mike to break down the differences between playing with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers.
J.P. Losman-Drew Bledsoe, Bills
Year: 2004
Selection: No. 22
Veteran’s age: 32
Games started before takeover: 16
Result: Bledsoe was released after one season
The Bills might not have appreciated what they had. When Bledsoe, the top pick of 1993 draft, was injured and replaced by Tom Brady in 2001, Bledsoe quickly became this generation’s Wally Pipp. The Patriots traded Bledsoe to the division-rival Bills for a first-round pick. Bledsoe was a Pro Bowler in his first season with the Bills and led them to a famous 31-0 victory over the Pats to kick off the 2003 season, but Buffalo went 14-18 in its first two years with Bledsoe at the helm. After Bledsoe took 54 sacks in 2002 and 49 in 2003, the front office might have worried about whether its starting quarterback could play deep into his 30s.
Still searching for that long-term successor to Hall of Famer Jim Kelly, the Bills struck on draft day. After using the 13th pick on wideout Lee Evans, general manager Tom Donahoe sent his second- and fifth-round picks and a first-rounder in the following draft to the Cowboys to select Losman with the 22nd selection. The Bills kept their faith with Bledsoe in 2004 after an 0-4 start, but going 9-3 the rest of the way and fielding a top-10 scoring offense didn’t keep him in town for another season. The Bills cut Bledsoe and went with Losman.
The evaluation didn’t work out. Losman was benched early in his first season as the starter for Kelly Holcomb and finished his 33-start career with more interceptions (34) than touchdown passes (33). The Bills cycled through quarterbacks for another decade-plus before eventually landing on Josh Allen. They might not have been wrong about Bledsoe, who started 22 games over the next two years with the Cowboys before giving way to Tony Romo and retiring, but Losman wasn’t the guy.
Oh, and the pick they sent to the Cowboys? It turned into future ESPN commentator Marcus Spears. If the Bills had held on to that selection, they would have been in position to draft Aaron Rodgers when he fell in 2005.
Verdict: Disaster
Daunte Culpepper-Randall Cunningham, Vikings
Year: 1999
Selection: No. 11
Veteran’s age: 36
Games started before takeover: 6
Result: Cunningham was benched for another player
The late-1990s Vikings were unique, as they generally produced good to great offenses with a range of quarterbacks. Brad Johnson was the primary starter in 1997, but when he was injured early in the 1998 season, Cunningham took over and turned back the clock. With Cris Carter and Randy Moss at wideout, Cunningham produced a stunning season, throwing for 3,704 yards and 34 touchdowns in 15 games. He finished second in MVP balloting behind Terrell Davis and was a first-team All-Pro.
On one hand, Cunningham was 35 years old and hadn’t been a regular starter since 1994, so it wasn’t as if the Vikings had been committed to him as their franchise quarterback for very long. On the other, he won 14 of 47 MVP votes that season! The Vikings came within a missed field goal of going up 10 in the NFC Championship Game with two minutes to go before losing to the Falcons. They signed another veteran journeyman in Jeff George to back up Cunningham, but it had to be a little shocking when a team that was so close to the Super Bowl used its first-round pick to draft a quarterback instead of trying to find a player who could help them get over the top and win a title.
While Cunningham signed a five-year, $28 million contract after his big season, his tenure with the Vikings didn’t last much longer. Coach Dennis Green benched Cunningham midway through his sixth start of 1999 for George, who played out the rest of the season as Minnesota’s starter. Culpepper sat for his entire rookie season before taking over in 2000, when he led the league in touchdown passes and made the Pro Bowl.
Evaluating this one is complicated, and it’s the closest comparable situation to the one the Rams face with Stafford and Simpson. Stafford is much more entrenched as the Rams’ starter, of course, but the Vikings were even closer to a Super Bowl in 1998 than the Rams were last season. The Vikings landed their quarterback of the future, but the 1999 team didn’t get that boost from a first-round pick who could help the team immediately, and Minnesota fell from 15-1 to 10-6 and didn’t make it out of the divisional round. I’d argue it was a success, but others might think differently.
Verdict: Success
Jim Druckenmiller-Steve Young, 49ers
Year: 1997
Selection: No. 26
Veteran’s age: 35
Games started before takeover: N/A
Result: Druckenmiller made one career start
We still have no idea whether Simpson will thrive or flop in Los Angeles, but the circumstances around him certainly seem optimal. He’s joining an organization that has plenty of playmakers at receiver and in the run game and a great track record of landing useful players in the draft. While McVay’s post-pick news conference didn’t appear to offer a glowing review of the selection, it’s extremely difficult to believe the Rams would draft a quarterback McVay didn’t want to develop. The fact that McVay, one of the most respected offensive minds in football, was willing to sign off on the decision suggests that Simpson might be better than some believe.
The counterargument to that is Druckenmiller. The 49ers reportedly tried to move up in the 1997 draft to add tight end Tony Gonzalez, but they never found a trade partner and stayed put at No. 26. Bill Walsh — who was an unofficial adviser with the 49ers at the time — preferred Jake Plummer, but the day-to-day decision-makers for the Niners selected Druckenmiller when he fell to them, hoping to land their long-term replacement for Young.
While coach Steve Mariucci saw some positives in Druckenmiller, Walsh never seemed convinced, bemoaning that the 49ers weren’t able to draft Shaun King in 1999. Druckenmiller made a spot start for Young in Week 2 of his rookie season and went 10-of-28 for 102 yards with three interceptions in a win over the Rams. It was his only career start.
Young was mostly healthy in 1997 and 1998, which was a positive, but the 49ers didn’t help their 1997 team and didn’t land their quarterback of the future by taking Druckenmiller, which was a double whammy. They turned to Jeff Garcia in the short term, but the 49ers spent years looking for Young’s replacement.
Verdict: Complete disaster
Tommy Maddox-John Elway, Broncos
Year: 1992
Selection: No. 25
Veteran’s age: 31
Games started before takeover: N/A
Result: Maddox toiled for years before emerging elsewhere
This was a weird choice. Elway was coming off his fourth Pro Bowl campaign in six years, and he was about to turn only 32 in June. Coach Dan Reeves’ team went 12-4 and made it to the AFC Championship Game the prior season, and while that ended in a frustrating 10-7 loss to the Bills, the Broncos seemed close to breaking through.
Instead, to Elway’s surprise, the Broncos chose Maddox at the end of the first round. (Elway wanted wide receiver Carl Pickens, who came off the board five picks later.) Maddox started four games for an injured Elway as a rookie, losing all four. Reeves was fired after the season and replaced with Wade Phillips, and after two years in the organization, Maddox was dealt to the Rams for a fourth-round pick, beginning what would be an itinerant career.
Maddox eventually proved he belonged. After winning the XFL MVP award for the lone season of the league’s initial iteration in 2001, Maddox caught on with the Steelers. He took over as their starter in 2002 and won Comeback Player of the Year, then spent another season as Pittsburgh’s starter before giving way to Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. Elway, of course, still had a couple of MVP-caliber seasons in him before finishing his career by winning back-to-back Super Bowls.
There’s another factor here that might matter a little bit to the Rams: leverage. Elway was at odds with Reeves at times and was famously stubborn enough to force his way to the Broncos after being drafted by the Colts in 1983. Could Maddox have been leverage against the threat of Elway leaving? While the relationship between McVay and Stafford is peachy, this is the same quarterback who has repeatedly pushed for contract adjustments on a nearly annual basis. We’re only a year removed from serious suggestions that Stafford was about to be traded to the Giants amid a financial standoff. The Rams aren’t about to trade Stafford, but if he hems and haws about retirement next year, Simpson gives the Rams some power.
Verdict: Disaster
What about the Rams?
Well, these decisions have produced dramatic results in both directions. We have five unqualified successes, five disastrous failures and two calls that landed somewhere in the middle. Most teams hope for something more than a 50-50 success rate in Round 1, but if the successes are for franchise quarterbacks, hitting on one can set your team up for a decade, leaving an outsized impact in the process.
There’s some selection bias here. Teams that have a quarterback in place are already likely to be better run and more successful than ones that can’t find their signal-caller or put the right infrastructure around them. Those teams are drafting quarterbacks only if they feel really confident about the quarterbacks in question, and they typically have a better chance of developing those players into useful contributors. Naturally, all of that applies to the Rams with Simpson.
Leaving Druckenmiller and Maddox aside as candidates who never really emerged as their team’s starters for any meaningful length of time, the 10 quarterbacks who did eventually cede their jobs to these first-round picks lasted an average of 17 more games in the lead role. That’s a nice number for the modern NFL, but there’s some really significant variance in play. The two Packers quarterbacks held on for three full seasons. Nobody else lasted more than one season before giving way to the new guy.
0:25
Ty Simpson looking forward to having Matthew Stafford as a mentor
Ty Simpson is excited to learn from Matthew Stafford in his next chapter with the Rams.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Stafford is the exception and holds his job through 2028, given that he’s still playing at an extremely high level. Then again, he’s also 38 years old and coming off a season in which his status for Week 1 was uncertain because of a back injury. The most likely outcome is that Stafford stays relatively healthy and plays well in 2026, but quarterbacks in their 30s can fall off quickly.
Earlier this offseason, I wrote about Rich Gannon, who won his first league MVP award during his age-37 season, just as Stafford did last season. The Raiders didn’t have a replacement for Gannon on their roster, but as they entered Gannon’s age-38 season, it didn’t seem like they needed one. Gannon had made four straight Pro Bowls in a Raiders uniform without missing a regular-season start. Unfortunately for Al Davis & Co., Gannon got hurt in 2003, played a total of 10 games in 2003 and 2004, then retired. The Raiders went into the quarterback wilderness for a decade before they drafted Derek Carr.
Would McVay find a post-Stafford quarterback? Probably. Would the Rams be better in 2026 if they had drafted a player who was going to impact the team in a more direct way? Yes. In the big picture, though, the Rams were able to add a player who could help keep them from the same decade of irrelevance they dealt with between the end of the Kurt Warner era and Goff’s ascension to Pro Bowl play under McVay. If that keeps McVay on board as coach and away from a media job after Stafford’s retirement, Simpson could be even more valuable.
And as history makes clear, there’s no telling how soon the Rams might need to make their quarterback of the future their quarterback of the present.
